2026 election odds
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi say about each state's Senate and governor race, and about who controls Congress. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
Senate control
63% 37%
Democrats: Polymarket 64% · Kalshi 62%
Republicans: Polymarket 37% · Kalshi 38%
House control
90% 10%
Democrats: Polymarket 91% · Kalshi 90%
Republicans: Polymarket 10% · Kalshi 10%
Hover or tap a state to see both exchanges' odds.
Democrats favoured Republicans favoured No race or no market Darker means a bigger lead.
Senate races, most competitive first
Closest races
Where the exchanges disagree
Polymarket and Kalshi are within 3 points on every shared race.
| State | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Toss-up, Republicans lead (58%) | D 42% R 57% | D 42% R 59%Josh Turek v Ashley Hinson |
| Maine | Toss-up, Democrats lead (58%) | D 60% R 42% | D 57% R 44%Troy Jackson v Susan Collins |
| Ohio | Democrats favoured (62%) | D 62% R 39% | no market |
| Kansas | Republicans favoured (63%) | D 38% R 63% | D 37% R 63%Adam Hamilton v Roger Marshall |
| Texas | Democrats favoured (63%) | D 64% R 38% | D 63% R 38%James Talarico v Ken Paxton |
| Michigan | Democrats favoured (70%) | D 71% R 31% | D 69% R 32%Abdul El-Sayed v Mike Rogers |
| Nebraska | Republicans favoured (74%) | D <1% R 73% | D 1% R 75%Cindy Burbank v Pete RickettsDan Osborn 26% |
| Alaska | Democrats favoured (74%) | no market | D 74% R 28% |
| South Carolina | Republicans favoured (85%) | D 16% R 85% | D 15% R 86%Annie Andrews v Darline Graham |
| Minnesota | Democrats favoured (87%) | D 88% R 13% | D 86% R 14%Peggy Flanagan v Michele Tafoya |
| New Hampshire | Democrats favoured (89%) | D 89% R 13% | D 89% R 11%Chris Pappas v John E. Sununu |
| Florida | Republicans favoured (91%) | D 9% R 91% | no market |
| Mississippi | Republicans favoured (91%) | D 8% R 91% | D 10% R 90%Scott Colom v Cindy Hyde-Smith |
| Montana | Republicans favoured (93%) | D <1% R 93% | D 2% R 93%Alani Bankhead v Kurt AlmeSeth Bodnar 7% |
| Louisiana | Republicans favoured (94%) | D 7% R 93% | D 6% R 94%Jamie Davis v Julia Letlow |
| Arkansas | Republicans favoured (94%) | D 7% R 94% | D 6% R 94%Hallie Shoffner v Tom Cotton |
| South Dakota | Republicans favoured (94%) | R 94% | D <1% R 94%Julian Beaudion v Mike RoundsBrian Bengs 4% |
| Tennessee | Republicans favoured (95%) | D 6% R 94% | D 5% R 96%Marquita Bradshaw v Bill Hagerty |
| Idaho | Republicans favoured (95%) | D <1% R 95% | D 1% R 95%David Roth v Jim RischTodd Achilles 6% |
| Georgia | Democrats favoured (96%) | D 96% R 4% | D 95% R 5%Jon Ossoff v Mike Collins |
| North Carolina | Democrats favoured (96%) | D 96% R 4% | D 95% R 6%Roy Cooper v Michael Whatley |
| Kentucky | Republicans favoured (96%) | R 97% | D 4% R 96%Charles Booker v Andy Barr |
| New Jersey | Democrats favoured (97%) | no market | D 97% R 4%Cory Booker v Justin Murphy |
| Oklahoma | Republicans favoured (97%) | R 97% | D 3% R 97%N’Kiyla Thomas v Kevin Hern |
| Virginia | Democrats favoured (97%) | no market | D 97% R 3%Mark Warner v Bert Mizusawa |
| Massachusetts | Democrats favoured (98%) | no market | D 98% R 2%Ed Markey v John Deaton |
| Oregon | Democrats favoured (98%) | no market | D 98% R 2%Jeff Merkley v David Brock Smith |
| Wyoming | Republicans favoured (98%) | R 97% | D 1% R 99%James Byrd v Harriet Hageman |
| New Mexico | Democrats favoured (98%) | no market | D 98% R 3%Ben Ray Luján v Larry E. Marker |
| Alabama | Republicans favoured (98%) | no market | D 1% R 98%Everett Wess v Barry Moore |
| Delaware | Democrats favoured (99%) | R 1% | D 99% R 1% |
| Colorado | Democrats favoured (99%) | R 2% | D 99% R 1%John Hickenlooper v Mark Baisley |
| Illinois | Democrats favoured (99%) | D 98% | D 99% R 3%Juliana Stratton v Don Tracy |
| Rhode Island | Democrats favoured (99%) | R 2% | D 99% R 2%Jack Reed v Raymond McKay |
| West Virginia | Republicans favoured (99%) | no market | D 2% R 99%Rachel Fetty Anderson v Shelley Moore Capito |
Governor races, most competitive first
Closest races
Where the exchanges disagree
Polymarket and Kalshi are within 3 points on every shared race.
| State | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Toss-up, Democrats lead (52%) | D 52% R 48% | D 52% R 49%Aaron Ford v Joe Lombardo |
| Georgia | Toss-up, Republicans lead (52%) | D 49% R 52% | D 47% R 53%Keisha Lance Bottoms v Rick Jackson |
| Ohio | Democrats favoured (70%) | D 72% R 28% | D 69% R 33%Amy Acton v Vivek Ramaswamy |
| Kansas | Republicans favoured (75%) | D 25% R 75% | no market |
| Oregon | Democrats favoured (75%) | D 76% R 24% | D 75% R 27%Tina Kotek v Christine Drazan |
| Vermont | Republicans favoured (76%) | D 25% R 75% | D 25% R 77%Amanda Janoo v Phil Scott |
| Texas | Republicans favoured (78%) | D 23% R 78% | D 25% R 78%Gina Hinojosa v Greg Abbott |
| Florida | Republicans favoured (79%) | D 21% R 79% | D 22% R 79%David Jolly v Byron Donalds |
| Wisconsin | Democrats favoured (80%) | D 81% R 20% | D 80% R 21%David Crowley v Tom Tiffany |
| Arizona | Democrats favoured (88%) | D 89% R 11% | D 88% R 13%Katie Hobbs v Andy Biggs |
| Iowa | Democrats favoured (90%) | D 91% R 10% | D 89% R 12%Rob Sand v Zach Lahn |
| Oklahoma | Republicans favoured (90%) | D 9% R 91% | D 10% R 90%Cyndi Munson v Mike Mazzei |
| Nebraska | Republicans favoured (91%) | D 10% R 91% | no market |
| New Mexico | Democrats favoured (92%) | D 93% R 7% | D 92% R 9%Deb Haaland v Greggory D. Hull |
| New Hampshire | Republicans favoured (93%) | D 5% R 93% | no market |
| Alabama | Republicans favoured (94%) | D 6% R 94% | D 8% R 93%Doug Jones v Tommy Tuberville |
| South Carolina | Republicans favoured (94%) | D 5% | D 6% R 94%Jermaine Johnson v Alan Wilson |
| New York | Democrats favoured (95%) | D 95% R 5% | D 94% R 6%Kathy Hochul v Bruce Blakeman |
| Michigan | Democrats favoured (95%) | D 95% R 5% | D 94% R 7%Jocelyn Benson v John JamesMike Duggan <1% |
| Tennessee | Republicans favoured (95%) | D 5% | D 5% R 95%Jerri Green v Marsha BlackburnDavid Hatley 1% |
| Maine | Democrats favoured (95%) | D 96% | D 94% R 7%Hannah Pingree v Robert CharlesRick Bennett 2% |
| Rhode Island | Democrats favoured (95%) | no market | D 95% R 1%Ken Block 5% |
| Massachusetts | Democrats favoured (96%) | D 96% R 4% | D 95% R 5%Maura Healey v Mike Minogue |
| Minnesota | Democrats favoured (96%) | D 96% R 5% | D 96% R 6%Amy Klobuchar v Lisa Demuth |
| Connecticut | Democrats favoured (96%) | no market | D 96% R 5%Ned Lamont v Ryan Fazio |
| Colorado | Democrats favoured (96%) | no market | D 96% R 3%Phil Weiser v Victor Marx |
| South Dakota | Republicans favoured (96%) | D 3% R 95% | D 1% R 97%Dan Ahlers v Larry Rhoden |
| California | Democrats favoured (96%) | no market | D 96% R 4%Xavier Becerra v Steve Hilton |
| Illinois | Democrats favoured (97%) | D 98% | D 97% R 3%JB Pritzker v Darren Bailey |
| Hawaii | Democrats favoured (97%) | no market | D 97% R 3%Josh Green v Gary Cordery |
| Wyoming | Republicans favoured (98%) | no market | D 2% R 98%Kenneth Casner v Eric Barlow |
| Maryland | Democrats favoured (98%) | no market | D 98% R 3%Wes Moore v Dan Cox |
| Pennsylvania | Democrats favoured (98%) | D 98% R 2% | D 98% R 3%Josh Shapiro v Stacy Garrity |
| Idaho | Republicans favoured (98%) | R 97% | D 3% R 99%Terri Pickens v Brad Little |
| Arkansas | Republicans favoured (98%) | no market | D 2% R 98%Fred Love v Sarah Huckabee Sanders |
"Average" is the plain mean of the exchanges that price a party; where only one does, that exchange's price is used. Each party's price comes from its own market, so a race's two sides need not add to exactly 100%, and independents are listed beside the table row rather than on the map. Some state markets trade very little, so a price can sit still for hours. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Updated .