The market moved first
For every story we know when the first article appeared and what its market did around that moment. These are the stories where the odds had already moved in the 24 hours before anyone reported it, and moved more then than in the 24 hours after. Traders were pricing something coverage had not caught up with.
- Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz Denies Interest in Florida State Job
+57 points in the 24h before the first report · −34 in the 24h after · 63% of the move came first · first seen 37h ago
Kalshi Jimbo Fisher 43% −22 - Jerry Jones Backs Brian Schottenheimer After Cowboys' Overtime Loss to Arizona
+22 points in the 24h before the first report · −17 in the 24h after · 55% of the move came first · first seen 3d ago
Kalshi Brian Schottenheimer 10% - Eagles Coach Sirianni Rules Out QB, OC Changes Amid Six-Game Losing Streak
+11 points in the 24h before the first report · −5 in the 24h after · 68% of the move came first · first seen 2d ago
Kalshi Nick Sirianni 23% −1 - BMW Slashes Profit Forecast Amid China Competition and Job Cuts
+6 points in the 24h before the first report · 0 in the 24h after · 100% of the move came first · first seen 26h ago
Kalshi Fully Electric M3 95% - Giants' Harbaugh Calls Titans Owner Over Jeffery Simmons Trade Bid
+5 points in the 24h before the first report · +3 in the 24h after · 64% of the move came first · first seen 2d ago
Polymarket Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? 60% −1
How this is counted
A story's first article is the earliest publish time among its sources, as stamped by the publisher's own feed. Its market is the best-matched one. We take the market's price 24 hours before that moment, at it, and 24 hours after, from the price changes we record every few minutes. A story is listed when the move before is at least 5 points and larger than the move after. Stories with prices tracked for less than a full window either side are not measured at all, rather than measured badly.
This describes when the odds moved, not why. Feed timestamps can lag a newsroom by minutes or hours, and a market can move on the same event a story reports before the story is published. Nothing here says anyone knew anything.