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What is moving and trading right now, and how often the market's favourite has actually won.

Biggest 24-hour moves

Open markets that traded at least $10k in the last day, by how far the odds moved.

Most traded in 24 hours

Did the market call it?

Favourite won 73% 42,195 of 57,420 resolved markets
On contested calls 69% 31,949 of 46,500 where the favourite was under 95%

Two-outcome markets resolved in the last 30 days. The favourite is whichever outcome was priced higher about a day before the market resolved. Near-certain favourites win almost every time, which is why the contested rate is shown on its own.

By category

Category Resolved Favourite won Contested calls Won when contested
Sports 46,151 70% 41,474 68%
Weather 2,289 87% 1,287 78%
Crypto 1,595 93% 558 81%
Economy 1,081 81% 800 76%
Culture 642 85% 359 74%
Politics & world 576 86% 265 72%
Tech & science 297 92% 114 81%

Categories come from each market's Polymarket tags. A rate needs at least 10 markets behind it; "too few" means fewer than that.

Is 70% really 70%?

If the markets are well calibrated, favourites priced at 70% should win about 70% of the time. Points below the dashed line mean favourites at that price won less often than the market said.

Across 57,420 resolved markets, favourites were priced at 76% on average and won 73%. Those priced 70%–80% won 70% of the time (6,736 of 9,653).

50%60%70%80%90%100%50%60%70%80%90%100%Favourite's price a day outHow often it wonPriced right
Each point is a band of favourite prices; its line shows the range the true win rate likely falls in. Points on the dashed line mean favourites won exactly as often as priced.
Calibration data
Favourite pricedMarketsAverage priceWon
50%–60%13,60555%58%
60%–70%9,71865%62%
70%–80%9,65375%70%
80%–90%7,91185%80%
90%–95%5,61393%88%
95%–100%10,92098%94%

Close calls it got right

Favourites that lost

Recently resolved