Trending on Polymarket
What is moving and trading right now, and how often the market's favourite has actually won.
Biggest 24-hour moves
Open markets that traded at least $10k in the last day, by how far the odds moved.
- Polymarket Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) 10% −52
- Polymarket Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? 41% −47
- Polymarket US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz 62% +40
- Polymarket Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? 17% −40
- Polymarket Will "Instadocs: The Decoy Plane" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? 44% +36
- Polymarket Sher-E-Punjab T20: Fazilka Falcons vs Bathinda Royals 91% +31
- Polymarket Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? 62% +27
- Polymarket Seville: Jaume Munar vs Gonzalo Bueno 51% −26
- Polymarket Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? 5% −26
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? 50% +25
- Polymarket Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? 37% +24 On: Norris Takes First Pole at New Madring Circuit for Spanish GP
- Polymarket Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 September 7-13? 17% −19
- Polymarket Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays 59% +16
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? 39% +14
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? 30% +14
- Polymarket Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals 36% −13
- Polymarket Sao Paulo Open, Qualification: Chloe Paquet vs Martina Capurro 51% +12
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? 6% −12
- Polymarket Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 13? 10% −12
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? 17% −12
- Polymarket Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? 32% +10
- Polymarket Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves 45% −10
- Polymarket Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? 42% +9 On: Shelton Sets Up US Open Final Showdown With Zverev After Defeating Alcaraz
- Polymarket Montreux: Lucija Bagaric vs Lucie Havlickova 50% +9
- Polymarket Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026? 85% −8
- Polymarket Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? 35% +8 On: Swedes Vote on Whether Far-Right Party Enters Government for First Time
- Polymarket Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? 66% −8
- Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat? 71% −7
- Polymarket Will Legacy Win the FISSURE Playground 3? 51% +7
- Polymarket Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? 87% +7
Most traded in 24 hours
- Polymarket US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz 62% +40
- Polymarket US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov 100% +19
- Polymarket US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina 0% −56
- Polymarket Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? 21% +1
- Polymarket US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp 100% +11
- Polymarket US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton 0% −26
- Polymarket Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0%
- Polymarket Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? 80% −1
- Polymarket US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula 100% +35
- Polymarket Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? 1%
- Polymarket Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? 0%
- Polymarket San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants 100% +43
- Polymarket Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners 0% −45
- Polymarket Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies 100% +63
- Polymarket Noche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) 100% +65
- Polymarket Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves 0% −47
- Polymarket Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers 0% −44
- Polymarket Seville: Pavel Lagutin vs Max Alcala Gurri 0% −30
- Polymarket Genoa: Matej Dodig vs Enrico Dalla Valle 100% +40
- Polymarket Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs 0% −47
- Polymarket Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres 0% −37
- Polymarket Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0%
- Polymarket Barranquilla: Leolia Jeanjean vs Claire Liu 0%
- Polymarket Guadalajara Open Akron, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar 51% +51
- Polymarket Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins 100% +48
- Polymarket Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals 0% −41
- Polymarket Noche UFC: Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) 100% +63
- Polymarket Tulln: Zdenek Kolar vs Alex Barrena 0% −54
- Polymarket Genoa: Laslo Djere vs Stefanos Sakellaridis 100% +34
- Polymarket Barranquilla: Elsa Jacquemot vs Anastasia Tikhonova 100% +100
Did the market call it?
Favourite won 79% 1,799 of 2,285 resolved markets
On contested calls 72% 1,238 of 1,712 where
the favourite was under 95%
Two-outcome markets resolved in the last 30 days. The favourite is whichever outcome was priced higher about a day before the market resolved. Near-certain favourites win almost every time, which is why the contested rate is shown on its own.
Close calls it got right
- Called itWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? Favourite a day out: Yes at 66% · Result: Yes · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-12? Favourite a day out: Yes at 89% · Result: Yes · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-10? Favourite a day out: Yes at 90% · Result: Yes · 10 Sept 2026
- Called itWill Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open? Favourite a day out: No at 92% · Result: No · 12 Sept 2026On: Shelton beats Tiafoe to reach US Open final against Zverev
- Called itWill Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12? Favourite a day out: No at 89% · Result: No · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-10? Favourite a day out: Yes at 88% · Result: Yes · 10 Sept 2026
- Called itWill Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's US Open? Favourite a day out: No at 94% · Result: No · 12 Sept 2026On: Khachanov advances to US Open semis as Blockx retires with injury
- Called itWill Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-09-10? Favourite a day out: No at 72% · Result: No · 10 Sept 2026
- Called itWill SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-09-10? Favourite a day out: No at 63% · Result: No · 10 Sept 2026
- Called itWill Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Favourite a day out: No at 76% · Result: No · 12 Sept 2026On: Rybakina Beats Gauff to Reach US Open Final Against Sabalenka
- Called itWill Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Favourite a day out: No at 88% · Result: No · 12 Sept 2026On: Navratilova and Tennis Channel CEO Discuss Future of Tennis at Bloomberg Power Players
- Called itFenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5 Favourite a day out: Under at 67% · Result: Under · 10 Sept 2026
Favourites that lost
- MissedExact Score: Comunicaciones FC 0 - 2 CD Marquense? Favourite a day out: No at 98% · Result: Yes · 10 Sept 2026
- MissedSpread: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (-2.5) Favourite a day out: NEC at 98% · Result: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden · 12 Sept 2026
- MissedWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 10? Favourite a day out: No at 98% · Result: Yes · 10 Sept 2026
- MissedExact Score: SK Slavia Praha 2 - 3 Racing Club de Lens? Favourite a day out: No at 97% · Result: Yes · 10 Sept 2026
- MissedExact Score: Orsomarso SC 0 - 2 Tigres FC? Favourite a day out: No at 97% · Result: Yes · 10 Sept 2026
- MissedFK Radnik Surdulica vs. FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade: O/U 0.5 Favourite a day out: Over at 97% · Result: Under · 10 Sept 2026
- MissedWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 10? Favourite a day out: No at 97% · Result: Yes · 10 Sept 2026
- MissedExact Score: Atlanta United FC 2 - 3 Orlando City SC? Favourite a day out: No at 96% · Result: Yes · 9 Sept 2026
- MissedWill Bitcoin reach $79,000 on September 8? Favourite a day out: Yes at 96% · Result: No · 9 Sept 2026
- MissedExact Score: Atalanta BC 1 - 2 Cagliari Calcio? Favourite a day out: No at 96% · Result: Yes · 12 Sept 2026
- MissedExact Score: Pumas de la UNAM 3 - 1 Club León FC? Favourite a day out: No at 95% · Result: Yes · 11 Sept 2026
- MissedWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on September 8? Favourite a day out: No at 95% · Result: Yes · 8 Sept 2026
Recently resolved
- MissedWill CA All Boys win on 2026-09-12? Favourite a day out: Yes at 57% · Result: No · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itPFK CSKA Moskva vs. FK Rubin Kazan: O/U 2.5 Favourite a day out: Under at 53% · Result: Under · 12 Sept 2026
- MissedSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. NEC: O/U 3.5 Favourite a day out: Over at 51% · Result: Under · 12 Sept 2026
- MissedAlabama vs. Kentucky: O/U 48.5 Favourite a day out: Under at 52% · Result: Over · 12 Sept 2026On: Prediction Markets and Models Offer Picks for Alabama vs. Kentucky Football Game
- MissedCS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 4.5 Favourite a day out: Under at 90% · Result: Over · 12 Sept 2026
- MissedWill CA San Telmo win on 2026-09-12? Favourite a day out: No at 86% · Result: Yes · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itSpread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Favourite a day out: New York Mets at 56% · Result: New York Mets · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. NEC: O/U 2.5 Favourite a day out: Over at 71% · Result: Over · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itSpread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Favourite a day out: New York Mets at 67% · Result: New York Mets · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. NEC: O/U 4.5 Favourite a day out: Under at 69% · Result: Under · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. NEC: Neither team to score first? Favourite a day out: No at 97% · Result: No · 12 Sept 2026
- Called itWolfsberger AC vs. SK Rapid: O/U 2.5 Favourite a day out: Over at 63% · Result: Over · 12 Sept 2026