Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Oct, 07:05 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Oct, 01:45 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 18% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Oct, 21:15 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 21% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Oct, 15:26 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Oct, 15:26 UTC | 21% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs only if Republican candidates win every single one of the specified Senate seats. The No outcome applies if Republicans lose at least one of those races or if any result remains undetermined by March 31, 2027. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself rather than the March 31, 2027 cutoff for unresolved states.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 25%
- No 76%
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