What happens next
The next 14 days as the markets see them. Every market resolving by day, with the odds right now and the story behind it. Only markets trading at least $10k a day are listed, so these are the questions people are actually pricing.
Today, Sunday 20 September
- 56%+35 $21k/day
- 1%−2 $17k/day
- 0% $15k/day
- 1%−21 $15k/day
- 93%+46 $14k/day
- 42%−12 $12k/day
- 18%−4 $476k/day
- 1% $458k/day
Tomorrow, Monday 21 September
- 49%+30 $37k/day
- 38%−4 $26k/day
- 0%−1 $13k/day
- 47%−3 $13k/day
- 51%+51 $238k/day
Tuesday 22 September
- 1%+1 $131k/day
- 43%−2 $13k/day
- 100%+38 $543k/day
Wednesday 23 September
- 8%−10 $63k/day
- 92%+2 $33k/day
- 100%+41 $17k/day
- 0%−36 $14k/day
Thursday 24 September
- 75%+10 $69k/day
- 94%+3 $29k/day
- 0%−48 $612k/day
- 100%+56 $483k/day
Friday 25 September
- 87%−3 $183k/day
- 100%+46 $753k/day
- 100%+57 $18k/day
Saturday 26 September
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25? On: US and Denmark Reach Greenland Security Deal Preserving Sovereignty88%+5 $24k/day
- 71%+43 $16k/day
- 2%−13 $12k/day
- 0% $335k/day
- 100%+100 $17k/day
Sunday 27 September
- 56%+56 $23k/day
- 100%+100 $155k/day
- 0%−31 $41k/day
Monday 28 September
- 100%+45 $16k/day
Tuesday 29 September
- 0% $10k/day
Wednesday 30 September
- Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? On: Russia holds parliamentary vote in occupied Ukraine amid cyberattacks100%+100 $191k/day
- Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026? On: Saudi Arabia Issues Air-Raid Alerts in Riyadh Amid Houthi Missile Attack6%+3 $17k/day
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? On: Trump Hosts Xi as Taiwan Drills and Tech Leaders Gather for Summit95%+1 $15k/day
- 81%+5 $1.7M/day
- 0% $467k/day
- 0% $83k/day
- 0% $25k/day
- 0% $19k/day
Thursday 1 October
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30? On: Top Democrat Blocks Trump's $2.8bn Bomb Sale to Israel97%−2 $93k/day
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? On: Global Oil Markets Face Uncertainty as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply Chains34%−17 $28k/day
- Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? On: Turkiye backs Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks intensify and US seeks diplomatic deal6%−4 $22k/day
- Iran full airspace closure by September 30? On: US Air Force Colonel Survives Shootdown Over Iran; Iranian Plane Emergency Lands in Mashhad8%+1 $20k/day
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? On: US Bars Palestinian Delegation From UN While Allowing Iranian Officials Entry10%−3 $11k/day
- 1% $249k/day
- 4%+2 $148k/day
- 1%+1 $99k/day
Friday 2 October
- 3%−5 $10k/day
Sunday 4 October
- 1% $96k/day
- 42%−1 $62k/day
- 57%+1 $38k/day
- 67%−3 $34k/day
- 33%+7 $33k/day
- 0% $22k/day
- 96%−1 $20k/day
- 0% $13k/day
Dates are each market's resolution deadline on Polymarket, which is usually the day of the event but can be later when a result takes time to confirm. Odds are the current price of the first outcome, or of the favourite where a market has several. Market prices are information, not investment advice.