Attention vs. odds
Each dot is a live story with a market that traded at least $10k in the last day. Across: how many publishers covered it in 24 hours. Up: how far its odds moved in the same 24 hours. The corners are where the news and the market disagree.
Underreported 2
The odds moved; the news barely covered it. Something happened that coverage has not caught up with.
- Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources Announces Venezuela Oil Deal 1 publisher · odds +14 · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- Bears Prepare for Mental War Against Brian Flores' Vikings Defense 1 publisher · odds −10 · Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Overreported 5
Wall-to-wall coverage; the odds did not budge. Traders do not think it changes the outcome.
- Oil Markets Face Uncertainty as Iran Conflict Drives Global Fuel Prices Higher 6 publishers · odds −4 · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?
- Qatar Mediates US-Iran Talks to Restore Strait of Hormuz Navigation 9 publishers · odds −1 · Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?
- GOP Midterm Strategy Shifts as Trump's Influence Wanes and Voter Anger Grows 7 publishers · odds −1 · Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- German Chancellor Merz Vows to Stay After Historic Election Defeat 9 publishers · odds +1 · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
- AI Safety Debate Intensifies Amid Existential Warnings and Regulatory Concerns 9 publishers · odds +1 · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
News and market agree 3
Big story, big move.
- Putin’s United Russia Wins Russian Parliamentary Election Amid Wartime Vote 7 publishers · odds +21 · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- Bears QB Caleb Williams Carted Off With Hamstring Injury in Loss to Vikings 6 publishers · odds −10 · Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP?
- Atletico Madrid beat 10-man Real Madrid 2-1 in feisty La Liga derby 8 publishers · odds −9 · Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Quiet on both sides 28
Little coverage, little movement.
- US and Denmark Reach Greenland Security Deal 5 publishers · odds +6 · Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?
- Democrats Block $2.8 Billion US Weapons Sale to Israel 1 publisher · odds −5 · Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?
- Houthi Advance Shakes Saudi Arabia as US Pursues Diplomatic Channel 4 publishers · odds −5 · Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?
- OpenAI's claimed Navier-Stokes solution sparks debate over AI's role in mathematics 1 publisher · odds −4 · Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
- Messi Scores 100th Inter Miami Goal to Win Campeones Cup 0 publishers · odds −2 · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- Fed Raises Rates for First Time in Three Years as Bank of Japan Also Hikes 4 publishers · odds −2 · Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
- Saudi Arabia Reroutes Oil After Pipeline Attack 0 publishers · odds −2 · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
- Trump Calls Nvidia CEO to Dismiss AI Fears as Hoax During Live Panel 3 publishers · odds −1 · Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- Justin Herbert leads Chargers to 26-14 loss against Raiders 1 publisher · odds −1 · Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
- Joe Burrow to Start for Bengals Against Texans Despite Back Tightness 2 publishers · odds +1 · Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?
- Vikings Outlast Bears in Week 2 Stalemate: Here Are 3 Things That Mattered Most 4 publishers · odds +1 · Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?
- Bitcoin Surges Past $81,000 as Crypto Markets Rally on Trade Talk Progress 3 publishers · odds +1 · Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?