Musk Jokes After Spending Record $445m in Midterms Hot: $202k traded on its market in 24 hours
Elon Musk spent a record $445 million supporting Republican candidates, exceeding George Soros's lifetime total, yet saw his backed candidates lose heavily.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 1% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 2 Nov 2026. Fortune published first, on 2 November at 21:43 UTC; Axios followed 32h 49m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 4 November at 06:53 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Axios (major outlet), Fortune, Times of India.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 1%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including if he loses the nomination or if a different candidate replaces him before the election. Readers often mistake the resolution source for news reports rather than official Republican Party announcements.
- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 0%, with $11k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if Elon Musk wins the 2028 US Presidential Election as determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for him. The No outcome applies if he does not win according to those sources or if another candidate is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. Readers often mistake the deadline for when the news outlets call the race rather than the inauguration date.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 0%, with $202k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2028. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk wins the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 and accepts it. The outcome is No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked story about a Pentagon study for the actual nomination event.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- FortuneAfter topping 2024’s donor list, Elon Musk said he’d do ‘a lot less.’ Since then, he’s given more than George Soros has personally in his lifetime1%
- AxiosMusk laughs off election drubbing with space lasers joke1%
- Times of India'Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn’t work': Musk on $445m failed gamble1%
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Musk laughs off election drubbing with space lasers joke Axios ·
- 'Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn’t work': Musk on $445m failed gamble Times of India
- After topping 2024’s donor list, Elon Musk said he’d do ‘a lot less.’ Since then, he’s given more than George Soros has personally in his lifetime Fortune
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 1%
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- Polymarket Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0%
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- Kalshi Elon Musk 0%
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