29 stories · 63 markets · RSS
How much the press wrote about Donald Trump each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 62% |
| 28 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 62% |
| 28 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 62% |
| 27 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 63% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 11:14 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 66% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 69% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 69% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 67% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 69% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 68% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 65% |
| 21 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 64% |
With one week remaining, Republicans face voter apathy while Democrats leverage enthusiasm in tight Senate and House contests.
Kalshi Republican Party 6% +5Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan visit Tehran for talks as President Trump signals an imminent decision to resume strikes or strike a deal.
With consumer sentiment near record lows and approval ratings low, the President makes his pledge as early voting begins in 43 states.
Brazilian senator Flávio Bolsonaro has arrived in the United States after fleeing a travel ban, with the Trump administration confirming it will issue visas to him and his family.
Senate Democrats demand restored climate grants and halt of insurance terminations while super PACs target Republican ties to tech donors ahead of the election.
Kalshi Republican Party 19% −1Crude oil prices declined for a second day as diplomatic efforts to prevent broader US-Iran conflict bolstered market stability.
Polymarket Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? 0%President Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico campaign in Texas as Republicans defend Governor Greg Abbott's lead against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Kalshi Paxton defeats Talarico 34% −1Former President Obama’s comparison of White House renovations to a Cheesecake Factory has triggered a retaliatory exchange with Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Kalshi Barack Obama 3%Lawmakers warn oil firms of consequences as tankers arrive, while Democrats prepare to investigate banks over the agreement.
Kalshi Yes 2% −1President Trump and Vice President Vance hold rallies in Texas, Mississippi, Michigan, and Montana to mobilize Republican voters ahead of the midterm elections.
Kalshi Before Election Day 17%President Trump questions the loyalty of Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed at a Michigan rally, prompting El-Sayed to fire back and allies to condemn the rhetoric.
Kalshi At least 48% 68% −9The musician files a copyright infringement lawsuit against the president's fundraising committee, alleging breach of a 2020 settlement that barred unlicensed use of 'Rockin’ in the Free World'.
President Trump exempts certain Canadian goods from tariffs while ordering a lawsuit against Alaska.
Kalshi Canada 4%Rising fuel costs driven by geopolitical conflicts and refinery issues are impacting global markets, with US averages exceeding the previous administration's levels.
Kalshi Above $8.00 11% −3The Justice Department filed charges against James Comey for allegedly leaking national defense information in 2016, marking the third time the Trump administration has prosecuted him.
The administration plans to weaken regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas wells, a move critics warn poses climate dangers.
Kalshi EPA 12%A federal grand jury in Washington rejected prosecutors' request to charge the former White House staffer for her statements regarding the Capitol attack.
Kalshi Cassidy Hutchinson 10% −14A federal judge extends a preliminary injunction preventing further tree removal at East Potomac Park despite the administration's plan to close the course on November 15.
Kalshi 3 93% −1Two Catholic bishops regret a White House meeting, accusing the administration of exploiting their private prayer for political gain ahead of US elections.
The president proposes replacing the term with 'super intelligence' in all relevant documents and other materials.
Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 10%Dr. Jennifer Shuford will step down as CDC deputy director citing family reasons, marking a brief stint in the Trump administration's leadership team.
The Pentagon estimates the cost of potential conflict with Iran has reached $47 billion, driven largely by munition replacement needs.
Audi will invest $4 billion to build its first US plant in Georgia, a move announced by CEO Gernot Döllner alongside Donald Trump at a campaign rally.
Kalshi Audi 1%The president cited oil reserves as he suggested the South American nation could eventually join the union.
Kalshi Before 2029 9%The US president announced a $1 million bounty for tips leading to voter fraud convictions in past and upcoming elections, contingent on arrests.
Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 3%The president made sexually explicit comments about the rapper during a campaign event in Michigan, following jokes about her potential White House role.
The US military killed five people after an airstrike on a suspected drug-trafficking vessel in the eastern Pacific, marking one of over 70 such operations since Donald Trump's second presidency began.
The US president made the proposal during a Republican rally.
President Donald Trump posted a lengthy diatribe on Truth Social calling Bill Maher a loser following an interview with Karoline Leavitt, ending their recent diplomatic honeymoon.
Kalshi Trump (3+ times) 77% Required. We use your browser's storage to remember this choice, your light or dark
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