Paxton defeats Talarico
Implied probability 41%−2
24-hour volume$437
Total volume$176k
Liquidity$176k
Resolves3 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 41% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 41% |
| 22 Sept, 13:07 UTC | 43% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Republican nomination and then wins the general election before January 2027. The outcome is No if he fails to secure the nomination or loses the general election within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story about his wife for a rule change, but only official election results determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 41%
- No 59%