About

A news story tells you what happened. A market price is a bet on what happens next, made with real money, updated by the minute. NewsMarkets puts them on the same page, so you can see not just the news but whether the market already knew.

What you get

A story here is not one article. It is every article we found about one event, from several hundred publishers, grouped together with a neutral headline and a one-sentence summary written from the group. If eleven publishers covered it, you see eleven links and one summary rather than eleven versions of the same page.

Where a market on Polymarket or Kalshi is about the same subject as a story, we show its current price and how that price has moved. Most such markets ask a different question from the one the story reports, so read the market's own question before reading anything into its price; how often the pairing is right is measured and published. A price is a probability the market has settled on, not a forecast we endorse.

Did the market see it coming?

That is the actual question this site is built to answer, and it is answered a few different ways. The market moved first and news vs. market compare when a story broke to when its price moved — before, with, or not at all despite heavy coverage. First to report tracks which publishers actually break stories, and by how many minutes. Who moves markets and press vs. reality turn that into a record for publishers and the market both.

None of this is graded once and forgotten. Crowd vs. market and Forecasters keep a running score of the market's own calibration and of readers who put down a call of their own — anonymously, no account needed — against what the market thought at the time.

Everything behind these pages is also a free, open API: see the data.

What we publish, and what we do not

Headlines and summaries on this site are written by an AI language model, not by people, and no person reviews them before they appear: see how AI is used here. Article text is not ours and is not on this site: we store only the title, a short lead from the feed, and the link. Read the reporting at the publisher, which is where every source link goes.

Who runs this

NewsMarkets is run by Alykhan Virani. For corrections, questions or requests about your data, write to newsmarkets@simbasystems.com.

No advice

Market data is information. Nothing here is investment advice, and we are not affiliated with Polymarket, Kalshi, or any publisher listed on the site.

Corrections

Stories are grouped by software, and software gets things wrong: two stories are occasionally merged, or one is split in two. Market matches can be loose — a reader can flag one directly from the story page. If you find something wrong, the story page lists every source, so you can always check what we grouped and why.