Polymarket vs. Kalshi
The two biggest prediction markets often list the same question in different words. These are the ones on stories we cover that we have matched as the same question: 55 so far, each with both exchanges' price right now. Where they differ, the gap is how much likelier one crowd thinks it is. Our election pages compare the two exchanges on every 2026 race.
- Questions both price
- 55
- Typical gap
- under 1 pt
- Within 2 points
- 93%
- Higher on Kalshi / Polymarket
- 8 / 2
Figures above are from the 28 questions traded at least $1k on both exchanges in the last 24 hours.
Where they disagree most
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
On Kalshi: Bank of Japan rate decision in December — Hike 25bps
Polymarket85% Kalshi82% 3 points higher on Polymarket - Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
On Kalshi: Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? — Delcy Rodríguez
Polymarket7% Kalshi10% 3 points higher on Kalshi
Every question both price
Busiest gaps first. Greyed rows traded less than $1k on at least one exchange today, so one of the prices may simply be out of date.
How the questions are matched
We start from markets on both exchanges that our matcher linked to the same story. Two of them are a candidate when their questions read alike and they close within a week of each other. Wording is not enough on its own: "impeached" and "impeached and removed", or "wins the nomination" and "runs for it", read almost alike and can be priced 40 points apart. So a language model (the same one that writes our headlines) reads both exchanges' resolution rules for every candidate, once, and only pairs it judges to settle on exactly the same thing are listed. It can still be wrong, which is why both questions are shown in full. If two do not match, tell us at newsmarkets@simbasystems.com and we will check them.
Prices can differ for ordinary reasons: the two exchanges have different traders and fees, a price nobody has traded
on today can be out of date, and small differences in the rules can matter. A gap is a difference of opinion, not a
guarantee of anything. Prices are information, not investment advice. The data behind this page is
open as v1/exchanges.json.