Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$447k
Total volume$447k
Liquidity$771k
Resolves7 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 0% |
| 6 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 00:20 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Nov, 23:15 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Abdul El-Sayed wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including if he loses the nomination or declines it after winning. Readers often mistakenly believe that his election to the Senate affects this outcome, but only the presidential nomination matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 100%
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