Who moves markets
For each publisher's first article on a story, did the story's market move in the 120 minutes after it, having sat still in the 120 minutes before? That is led: the report came first, the move second. If the odds had already moved before the article, the outlet followed the market. Most reporting does neither: the odds simply did not move 5 points either way.
| Publisher | Stories | Led the market | Followed it | Typical move after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TechCrunch | 10 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| MarketWatch | 5 | 20% (1) | 1 pts | |
| decrypt.co | 8 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| CBS News Politics | 18 | 11% (2) | 0 pts | |
| Sky News | 9 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Fox News Politics | 21 | 5% (1) | 0 pts | |
| Bloomberg Markets | 22 | 5% (1) | 0 pts | |
| Engadget | 12 | 8% (1) | 0 pts | |
| The Verge | 12 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Washington Post | 12 | 8% (1) | 0 pts | |
| The Hill | 28 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Axios | 14 | 7% (1) | 0 pts | |
| NPR World | 20 | 5% (1) | 0 pts | |
| The Guardian Sport | 53 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Latest articles | 29 | 3% (1) | 0 pts | |
| Times of India | 29 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| bleacherreport.com | 34 | 6% (2) | 0 pts | |
| espn.com | 50 | 2% (1) | 0 pts | |
| SI Feed | 47 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Al Jazeera | 43 | 5% (2) | 0 pts | |
| CBS Sports Headlines | 34 | 3% (1) | 0 pts | |
| France 24 | 24 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| South China Morning Post | 24 | 8% (2) | 0 pts | |
| News Feed | 23 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| BBC Sport | 22 | 5% (1) | 0 pts | |
| SkySports | 20 | 5% (1) | 0 pts | |
| Deutsche Welle | 18 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Quartz | 15 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| All Content from Business Insider | 14 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Fortune | 12 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| ABC News | 11 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Hacker News | 11 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| theinformation.com | 11 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Inc. | 10 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| CNET | 9 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Ars Technica | 8 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Latest from Tom's Hardware | 8 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| National Review | 8 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Roll Call | 8 | 13% (1) | 0 pts | |
| Mother Jones | 7 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Deadline | 6 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| kyivindependent.com | 6 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| theregister.com | 6 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Variety | 6 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| WIRED | 6 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Cointelegraph.com News | 5 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Entrepreneur | 5 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| Rolling Stone | 5 | 0% (0) | 0 pts | |
| The Dispatch | 5 | 20% (1) | 0 pts |
How this is counted
A story's market is its best-matched one, and its prices are recorded every few minutes. For a publisher's first article on the story we compare the price 120 minutes before the article with the price at it, and the price at it with 120 minutes after. A move of at least 5 points after, with less than that before, counts as led. At least 5 points before counts as followed, whatever happened after. Publishers with fewer than 5 measured stories are left out.
Led means the move followed the report, not that the report caused it. Several outlets often publish within minutes of the same event, and the market can be reacting to the event rather than to any one of them. Feed timestamps are the publishers' own. Over months, though, an outlet that is consistently ahead of moves is telling you something about its reporting.