Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 10 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 22% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 23:59 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 22% |
| 9 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 23% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 25% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 23% |
| 9 Oct, 16:09 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 23% |
| 8 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 21% |
| 7 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 27% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
A Yes outcome requires a confirmed Ebola case within the Republic of the Congo before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The location of exposure or testing does not matter as long as the infection is identified in that country. Readers often mistake the linked story about the Democratic Republic of the Congo for a relevant case, but the market specifically tracks the Republic of the Congo.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 80%
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