Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 3%+1
24-hour volume$35k
Total volume$632k
Liquidity$115k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
On Kalshi: the same question is at 3%, level with Polymarket. See it on Kalshi · Every question both exchanges price
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 15:20 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 12:41 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 12:27 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 2% |
| 12 Nov, 11:11 UTC | 2% |
| 12 Nov, 10:06 UTC | 2% |
| 12 Nov, 08:50 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 06:36 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Nov, 00:25 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 23:31 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 22:45 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 21:02 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 17:22 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 16:25 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 15:21 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Nov, 13:45 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 09:58 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 09:02 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 08:16 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 07:29 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 06:02 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 05:42 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 05:29 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 04:28 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 03:29 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 02:27 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 01:40 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 01:12 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Nov, 00:10 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 23:56 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 11% |
| 10 Nov, 22:55 UTC | 57% |
| 10 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Nov, 21:15 UTC | 66% |
| 10 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 55% |
| 10 Nov, 19:27 UTC | 60% |
| 10 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 76% |
| 10 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 76% |
| 10 Nov, 17:29 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 16:54 UTC | 80% |
| 10 Nov, 16:11 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 15:22 UTC | 80% |
| 10 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 80% |
| 10 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 13:57 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 13:28 UTC | 78% |
| 10 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 78% |
| 10 Nov, 12:26 UTC | 78% |
| 10 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 10:26 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 09:19 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 08:52 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 07:37 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 07:10 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 06:02 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 05:43 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 05:22 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 04:42 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 02:21 UTC | 82% |
| 10 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 01:26 UTC | 82% |
| 10 Nov, 00:53 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 81% |
| 9 Nov, 23:59 UTC | 82% |
| 9 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 80% |
| 9 Nov, 22:58 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Nov, 22:29 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 21:28 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Nov, 20:18 UTC | 74% |
| 9 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Nov, 18:47 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Nov, 18:26 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 17:23 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 14:22 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Nov, 13:39 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 13:05 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Nov, 12:30 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Nov, 11:28 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Nov, 10:03 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 09:36 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 09:02 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 08:56 UTC | 65% |
| 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Nov, 07:43 UTC | 66% |
| 9 Nov, 07:29 UTC | 69% |
| 9 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Nov, 06:16 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Nov, 05:43 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Nov, 04:42 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Nov, 02:33 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Nov, 02:27 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 74% |
| 9 Nov, 00:49 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Nov, 00:17 UTC | 75% |
| 8 Nov, 22:01 UTC | 76% |
| 8 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 76% |
| 8 Nov, 21:16 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Nov, 20:50 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 74% |
| 8 Nov, 19:44 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 72% |
| 8 Nov, 18:23 UTC | 70% |
| 8 Nov, 17:22 UTC | 69% |
| 8 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 70% |
| 8 Nov, 16:14 UTC | 69% |
| 8 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 64% |
| 8 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 64% |
| 8 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 67% |
| 8 Nov, 13:59 UTC | 67% |
| 8 Nov, 12:27 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Nov, 11:35 UTC | 63% |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Nov, 09:53 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Nov, 09:26 UTC | 62% |
| 8 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 64% |
| 8 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 65% |
| 8 Nov, 07:57 UTC | 68% |
| 8 Nov, 07:29 UTC | 65% |
| 8 Nov, 06:20 UTC | 59% |
| 8 Nov, 05:59 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 57% |
| 8 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 59% |
| 8 Nov, 04:16 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 58% |
| 8 Nov, 03:29 UTC | 56% |
| 8 Nov, 02:55 UTC | 54% |
| 8 Nov, 02:28 UTC | 55% |
| 8 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 60% |
| 8 Nov, 01:26 UTC | 64% |
| 8 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 23:55 UTC | 67% |
| 7 Nov, 23:15 UTC | 69% |
| 7 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 68% |
| 7 Nov, 22:29 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 20:28 UTC | 59% |
| 7 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 59% |
| 7 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 57% |
| 7 Nov, 18:38 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 18:25 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 17:23 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 16:43 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 15:18 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 14:55 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Nov, 13:47 UTC | 42% |
| 7 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 12:58 UTC | 47% |
| 7 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 53% |
| 7 Nov, 11:38 UTC | 53% |
| 7 Nov, 11:03 UTC | 53% |
| 7 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Nov, 10:25 UTC | 42% |
| 7 Nov, 09:17 UTC | 42% |
| 7 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 42% |
| 7 Nov, 08:15 UTC | 42% |
| 7 Nov, 07:55 UTC | 43% |
| 7 Nov, 07:07 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Nov, 06:53 UTC | 51% |
| 7 Nov, 06:25 UTC | 49% |
| 7 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 44% |
| 7 Nov, 03:59 UTC | 41% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Nov, 02:46 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 38% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 38% |
| 7 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 40% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 23:26 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 22:21 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 21:45 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 20:53 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 33% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 11:38 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Nov, 10:35 UTC | 38% |
| 6 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 08:27 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 38% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 35% |
| 6 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 23:15 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 21:04 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends solely on a House vote; Senate trials or convictions do not count. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year rather than the specific time, or assume Senate action is required.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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