Trump Questions Hegseth's Future as Pentagon Mobilizes for Election Security Hot: $243k traded on its market in 24 hours
President Trump consults advisers on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's tenure while the Pentagon directs intelligence agencies to secure overseas midterm elections.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 12:02 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 11:47 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 10:58 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 09:21 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 08:10 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 10:22 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 09:34 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 09:06 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 08:32 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 06:51 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Nov, 23:16 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 20:51 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 18:34 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 17:41 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 16:12 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 12:19 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 00:40 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 16:07 UTC | 21% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 23% |
| 1 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 24% |
| 31 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 25% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 25% |
| 31 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 24% |
| 31 Oct, 09:45 UTC | 24% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 23% |
| 31 Oct, 07:39 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 06:22 UTC | 23% |
| 31 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 23% |
| 31 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 23% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 24% |
| 31 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 25% |
| 31 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 27% |
| 31 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 18:44 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 10:43 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 08:26 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 03:28 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 01:45 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 22:18 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 25% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 2 Nov 2026. Fox News Politics published first, on 2 November at 18:54 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 45h 45m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 4 November at 18:59 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Fox News Politics.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? — the market puts it at 36%, with $122k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth stops serving as Secretary of Defense at any point before November 30 at 11:59 PM ET, including if he announces his resignation or removal by that deadline even if the change happens later. It resolves to No if he remains in office for the entire period up to that specific time and date.
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? — the market puts it at 45%, with $243k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Pete Hegseth stops being Secretary of Defense at any point before December 31. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change happens later. Readers often mistake the announcement deadline for the actual effective date of his departure.
- Pete Hegseth — the market puts it at 45%, with $16k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if Pete Hegseth becomes the first member of Donald Trump's Cabinet to leave or announce his departure after May 22, 2026. The outcome is No if he remains in office or if another cabinet member leaves first. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but only departures occurring after May 22, 2026 count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Fox News PoliticsPentagon's top spies tasked with 'no-fail' mission as Hegseth puts foreign midterm meddling in crosshairs22%
- CBS News PoliticsTrump asking advisers if Hegseth should go, sources say30%▲8 points since the previous source
- The HillTrump: Hegseth would be 'very popular' as Tennessee senator35%▲5 points since the previous source
- Current odds36%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? 36% +9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? 45% +8
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Pete Hegseth 45% +5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Donald Trump
- Pete Hegseth