Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Implied probability 23%+2
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$689k
Liquidity$174k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Oct, 01:51 UTC | 24% |
| 21 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 24% |
| 21 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 24% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 25% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 24% |
| 20 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 18:10 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 12:20 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 11:33 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Pete Hegseth stops being Secretary of Defense at any point before December 31. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change happens later. Readers often mistake the announcement deadline for the actual effective date of his departure.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 23%
- No 78%
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