Pete Hegseth
Implied probability 11%−10
24-hour volume$116
Total volume$59k
Liquidity$59k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 11% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 21:34 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 11:52 UTC | 21% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Pete Hegseth becomes the first member of Donald Trump's Cabinet to leave or announce his departure after May 22, 2026. The outcome is No if he remains in office or if another cabinet member leaves first. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but only departures occurring after May 22, 2026 count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%