Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Implied probability 12%+1
24-hour volume$249
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 15:06 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 14:03 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth stops serving as Secretary of Defense at any point before November 30 at 11:59 PM ET, including if he announces his resignation or removal by that deadline even if the change happens later. It resolves to No if he remains in office for the entire period up to that specific time and date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%
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