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Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Race as He Leans on Bill Nye Endorsement Hot: $156k traded on its market in 24 hours

A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by five points in the Texas Senate race while he launches a campaign video featuring Bill Nye.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 25 Sept 2026 · updated 1h ago

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Paxton defeats Talarico 43% +1 $795 24hends 3 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi James Talarico, 3+ pts 36% $3k 24hends 3 Nov 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Ken Paxton 40% $156k 24hends 3 Nov 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

How the odds moved · Paxton defeats Talarico
0%50%100%43%22 Sept, 13:07 UTCnowThe Hill: Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll · 27 Sept, 12:34 UTCDeadline: James Talarico Leans Into Endorsement From Bill Nye To Launch New Teachers Group · 25 Sept, 15:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now43%
26 Sept, 21:32 UTC43%
26 Sept, 20:44 UTC41%
26 Sept, 08:02 UTC42%
26 Sept, 04:36 UTC44%
25 Sept, 18:00 UTC43%
24 Sept, 11:48 UTC42%
23 Sept, 21:23 UTC41%
23 Sept, 14:40 UTC42%
23 Sept, 13:46 UTC41%
22 Sept, 13:07 UTC43%

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Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll The Hill ·
  2. James Talarico Leans Into Endorsement From Bill Nye To Launch New Teachers Group Deadline

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