James Talarico, 3+ pts
Implied probability 100%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$996k
Liquidity$996k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 11 Nov, 23:38 UTC | 100% |
| 9 Nov, 17:37 UTC | 100% |
| 8 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 100% |
| 8 Nov, 02:35 UTC | 100% |
| 7 Nov, 22:22 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 11:38 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 08:20 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 07:17 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 100% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 100% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the headline's polling data for the final result, but only the official certified election results determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%