James Talarico, ≥8%
Implied probability 98%+87
24-hour volume$96k
Total volume$123k
Liquidity$123k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 07:47 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Nov, 07:35 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of 8% or more. The outcome is No if his margin of victory is less than 8%. Readers often mistake the linked headline about recent Democratic wins for the final result, but only the official margin in the 2026 election counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%