Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?
Why it moved: +5 points at 20:17 UTC, after The New York Times: Flávio Bolsonaro Flees Brazil for the. U.S. After Election Defeat — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 27 Oct, 22:44 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro physically enters Brazil's land territory before November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he does not make this physical entry by that deadline. Readers often mistakenly count visits to Brazilian airspace or maritime waters as a return.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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