Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 13%+1
24-hour volume$10
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 18:09 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 34% |
| 24 Sept, 15:32 UTC | 35% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Sept, 11:34 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 34% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 33% |
| 24 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 60% |
| 24 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 58% |
| 24 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 77% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly calls for or endorses a global pause, pacing, or slowdown in frontier AI development before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not make such a statement by that date. Readers often mistake general criticism of AI or unrelated remarks about 'super intelligence' for the required explicit endorsement of a developmental pause.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%