Before 2029
Implied probability 9%
24-hour volume$15
Total volume$88k
Liquidity$88k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States admits a new state into the Union before January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if no additional state joins by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Venezuela for an actual admission event, but only official statehood counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%