Yes
Why it moved: +40 points at 17:25 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: US Weighs 90-Day Diesel Export Ban to Tackle Record Fuel Prices: Report — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 29% |
| 23 Sept, 20:13 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 29% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 21% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States imposes a ban on diesel exports that goes into effect between now and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the news headline for the resolution, but only an actual enacted ban counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 29%
- No 71%