Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?
Why it moved: +21 points at 21:53 UTC, after The Hill News: DOJ charges Comey for third time — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 26 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 22% |
| 26 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 23% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 4% |
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if James Comey is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An arrest requires physical custody, voluntary surrender to a warrant, or formal booking, while mere charges or warrants do not count. Readers often mistake the issuance of an indictment for an arrest, but only actual detention triggers the "Yes" outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 78%
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