DOJ Charges Former FBI Director James Comey for Third Time Over Alleged Leaks Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

The story so far

7 publishers have covered this in 9 articles since 26 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 26 October at 21:42 UTC; Axios followed 1 min later. The most recent article, from The Hill News, appeared on 26 October at 22:46 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), Fox News Politics.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? — the market puts it at 23%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if James Comey is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An arrest requires physical custody, voluntary surrender to a warrant, or formal booking, while mere charges or warrants do not count. Readers often mistake the issuance of an indictment for an arrest, but only actual detention triggers the "Yes" outcome.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 28%, with $72 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the United States v. James Brien Comey, Jr. case is dismissed by the court with jurisdiction before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if the case remains active or is not dismissed within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a judge's ruling as the final resolution, but only an official dismissal of the entire case counts.
• James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? — the market puts it at 1%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if James Comey receives any jail or prison sentence by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he avoids such a sentence, if all charges are dropped, or if the deadline passes without a qualifying conviction. Readers often mistake civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, or mere charges for a prison sentence, which do not count toward resolution.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.