Republican Party
Why it moved: −7 points at 20:01 UTC, after Mother Jones: Trump Says the Polls Are “Fake.” Iowa Farmers Say They’re “Bleeding Money.” — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 24% |
| 30 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 05:11 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 20:07 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 14:31 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 23:17 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 19:31 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 13:32 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 20:07 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Republicans control more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections. It resolves to No if Democrats hold an equal or greater number of governorships. Readers often mistake this for a national popular vote count rather than a specific tally of state executive offices.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 24%
- No 76%