Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?
Implied probability 2%−1
24-hour volume$10
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$36k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 08:08 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 09:32 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 18:03 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 17:43 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait and establish control over any part of its territory by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Mere presence or short-term operations lasting less than 48 hours do not count, and the outcome depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than single statements.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
Trade this market on Polymarket →