Above $8.00
Implied probability 20%+9
24-hour volume$15
Total volume$20k
Liquidity$20k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the AAA national average price for diesel in the US exceeds $8.00 at any point between now and December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if that price never reaches that level during this period. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about current prices as the deciding factor, but only the AAA national average in 2026 matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%