Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 09:19 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 06:19 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 69% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Labour Party secures the second-highest number of seats in the 2026 New Zealand election, with ties broken by party list votes or alphabetical order. The No outcome applies if any other party holds that position. Readers often mistake the November 7, 2026 election date for the resolution deadline, but the market actually resolves based on results known by October 31, 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 69%
- No 31%
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