Ken Paxton
Implied probability 42%−1
24-hour volume$128k
Total volume$8.1M
Liquidity$8.1M
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 19:01 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 17:18 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Sept, 07:00 UTC | 42% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is sworn in as a U.S. Senator from Texas for the term starting in 2027. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked article about Paxton's wife for the actual event, but only the official swearing-in of a Republican senator counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 42%
- No 58%