Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Implied probability 28%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$199k
Liquidity$227k
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 06:08 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Sept, 16:51 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 22:31 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 31% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Kansas Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Republican or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline for election night, but the market waits until the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 28%
- No 72%
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