Republican Party
Implied probability 38%−2
24-hour volume$87k
Total volume$5.3M
Liquidity$5.3M
Resolves1 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Sept, 06:59 UTC | 39% |
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Republicans hold a majority in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections. The outcome is No if they do not. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final election result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 62%