Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Implied probability 32%−1
24-hour volume$188k
Total volume$4.3M
Liquidity$742k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Democrat or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Bo French for the resolution criteria, but the market resolves based on the official election winner as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 69%