Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Implied probability 28%
24-hour volume$1.4M
Total volume$7.8M
Liquidity$4.0M
Resolves4 Nov 2026
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What counts
The market resolves based on which party holds a majority of voting seats in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. If no party wins a majority, control goes to the party holding half the seats plus the Vice Presidency, or the party of the first President Pro Tempore if the outcome remains ambiguous.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 28%
- No 72%