Yamal vs Mbappe Battle for Ballon d'Or Glory
Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé lead a tight contest for soccer's top individual prize.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 07:36 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 04:19 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 12:46 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 6% |
| 19 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 08:59 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 05:14 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 2% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 2% |
| 11 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 16:33 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 07:38 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 11:17 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 14:17 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 05:30 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 00:50 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 20:36 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 08:12 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 03:38 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 00:56 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 09:17 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 18:41 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 07:01 UTC | 9% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 19 Oct 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 19 October at 12:29 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Kylian Mbappe — the market puts it at 5%, with $122k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Kylian Mbappé wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked injury story as relevant, but only the award result matters.
- Kylian Mbappé — the market puts it at 82%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 10 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappé finishes in the top three of the official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026. It resolves to No if he does not place in that top three. Readers often mistake the shortlist announcement for the final result, but only the official final ranking counts.
- Kylian Mbappé — the market puts it at 99%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 10 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Kylian Mbappé finishes in the top 10 of the official 2026 Ballon d'Or rankings. The outcome is No if he does not reach that position. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Yamal for the actual ranking source.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Kylian Mbappe 5% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Kylian Mbappé 82% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Kylian Mbappé 99% +9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Lamine Yamal
- Kylian Mbappé