Election odds › How the markets did
How the markets did
A prediction market is only worth watching if it is right more often than its price says. As each 2026 race is settled, this page records who won and whether Polymarket and Kalshi had that side ahead the day before. Races settle as the exchanges resolve their markets, which can take hours or weeks after polls close on 3 November, and this page fills in by itself.
Nothing settled yet
No race has been settled. Until then, here is where the markets stand across the races they price. Each tally is the average of the exchanges, with "toss-up" meaning neither party is above 60%.
- Senate: 35 races priced. Democrats favoured in 18, toss-ups 1, Republicans favoured in 16. See the map →
- Governor: 35 races priced. Democrats favoured in 20, toss-ups 1, Republicans favoured in 14. See the map →
"Called it" means the exchange's Democratic price a day before the market settled was above 50% and Democrats won, or below 50% and they lost; a win by an independent counts as missed by both. Races where an exchange had no recorded price a day before are left out of its count. We record prices from when we began tracking each market, so a race tracked for less than a day has no "day before" price. Market prices are information, not investment advice.