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Texas election odds, 2026
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Texas's Senate, governor and House races. Senate: Democrats 67% · governor: Republicans 65% · House: 37 of 38 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 11.6. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
Texas Senate race
Democrats favoured (67%, average of the exchanges)
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Texas governor race
Republicans favoured (65%, average of the exchanges)
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Texas House districts
37 of 38 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 11.6 of the priced seats; favoured in 11, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 26.
| District | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | R 97% | D 3% | D 4% | Yolanda R. Prince v Nathaniel Moran |
| TX-02 | R 94% | D 6% | D 6% | Shaun Finnie v Steve Toth |
| TX-03 | R 96% | D 4% | D 4% | Evan Hunt v Keith Self |
| TX-04 | R 99% | D 1% | D 1% | Jason Pearce v Pat Fallon |
| TX-05 | R 98% | D 1% | D 2% | Chelsey Hockett v Lance Gooden |
| TX-06 | R 99% | D <1% | D 2% | Danny Minton v Jake Ellzey |
| TX-07 | D 97% | D 99% | D 96% | Lizzie Fletcher v Alexander Hale |
| TX-08 | R 96% | D 4% | D 4% | Laura Jones v Jessica Steinmann |
| TX-09 | R 81% | D 19% | – | |
| TX-10 | R 91% | D 8% | D 9% | Caitlin Rourk v Chris Gober |
| TX-11 | R 96% | – | D 4% | Claire Reynolds v August Pfluger |
| TX-12 | R 95% | D 6% | D 5% | Angela Rodriguez Prilliman v Craig Goldman |
| TX-13 | R 97% | – | D 3% | Mark Nair v Ronny Jackson |
| TX-14 | R 96% | D 4% | D 4% | Thurman Bartie v Randy Weber |
| TX-15 | D 86% | D 86% | – | |
| TX-16 | D 97% | D 98% | D 97% | Veronica Escobar v Adam Bauman |
| TX-17 | R 95% | D 6% | D 4% | Casey Shepard v Pete Sessions |
| TX-18 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Christian Menefee v Ronald Whitfield |
| TX-19 | R 98% | D 1% | D 3% | Kyle Rable v Tom Sell |
| TX-20 | D 97% | D 98% | D 97% | Joaquin Castro v Edgardo Baez |
| TX-21 | R 96% | D 5% | D 3% | Kristin Hook v Mark Teixeira |
| TX-22 | R 94% | D 6% | D 6% | Marquette Greene-Scott v Trever Nehls |
| TX-23 | R 67% | D 33% | D 33% | Katy Padilla Stout v Brandon Herrera |
| TX-24 | R 95% | D 4% | D 5% | Kevin Burge v Beth Van Duyne |
| TX-25 | R 96% | D 5% | D 3% | Dione Sims v Roger Williams |
| TX-26 | R 97% | D 2% | D 4% | Steven Shook v Brandon Gill |
| TX-27 | R 94% | D 6% | D 6% | Tanya Lloyd v Michael Cloud |
| TX-28 | D 75% | D 75% | – | |
| TX-29 | D 98% | D 98% | D 97% | Sylvia Garcia v Martha Fierro |
| TX-30 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Frederick Haynes III v Everett Jackson |
| TX-31 | R 94% | D 5% | D 7% | Justin Early v John Carter |
| TX-32 | R 91% | D 9% | – | |
| TX-33 | D 96% | – | D 96% | Colin Allred v Patrick David Gillespie |
| TX-35 | D 64% | D 64% | – | |
| TX-36 | R 95% | D 5% | D 4% | Rhonda Hart v Brian Babin |
| TX-37 | D 97% | D 98% | D 97% | Greg Casar v Lauren B. Peña |
| TX-38 | R 96% | D 3% | D 6% | Melissa McDonough v Jon Bonck |
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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.