Election odds › Iowa

Iowa election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Iowa's Senate, governor and House races. Senate: Republicans 58% · governor: Democrats 87% · House: 3 of 4 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 1.5. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Iowa Senate race

Toss-up, Republicans lead (58%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 44% +2

Republicans 56% −2

$29k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Josh Turek (D) 41% −3

Ashley Hinson (R) 59% +1

$79k traded in 24 hours

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Email me when the odds move

Iowa governor race

Democrats favoured (87%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 89%

Republicans 12%

$9k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Rob Sand (D) 86% −1

Zach Lahn (R) 14% +1

$21k traded in 24 hours

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Email me when the odds move

Iowa House districts

3 of 4 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 1.5 of the priced seats; favoured in 2, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 1.

Iowa House districts, 2026
District	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi	Candidates
IA-01	D 83%	D 83%	–
IA-02	D 60%	D 60%	D 61%	Lindsay James v Joe Mitchell
IA-04	R 97%	D 1%	D 5%	Dave Dawson v Chris McGowan

Iowa in the news

Iowa Beats Michigan 20-19 on Last-Second Touchdown 4 publishers
Eight US States Sue OpenAI Over ChatGPT Safety and Child Harm Allegations 13 publishers
RFK Jr.-Aligned PAC Spends Over $1 Million in Iowa Governor's Race 2 publishers

All Iowa stories →

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.