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Massachusetts election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Massachusetts's Senate, governor and House races. Senate: Democrats 98% · governor: Democrats 96% · House: 9 of 9 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 8.7. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Massachusetts Senate race

Democrats favoured (98%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

No market for this race.

Kalshi

Ed Markey (D) 98%
John Deaton (R) 2%

$480 traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%98%16 Oct22 Oct
KalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Massachusetts governor race

Democrats favoured (96%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 96%
Republicans 4%

$5k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Maura Healey (D) 96%
Mike Minogue (R) 4%

$48k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%96%96%5 Oct22 Oct
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Massachusetts House districts

9 of 9 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 8.7 of the priced seats; favoured in 9, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 0.

Massachusetts House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
MA-01 D 95% D 96% D 94%
MA-02 D 97% D 96% D 98%
MA-03 D 97% – D 97% Lori Trahan v Gary Grossi
MA-04 D 97% – D 97% Jake Auchincloss v Tom Stalcup
MA-05 D 96% – D 96%
MA-06 D 96% – D 96% Dan Koh v Micah Jones
MA-07 D 99% – D 99%
MA-08 D 96% – D 96% Stephen Lynch v Robert Burke
MA-09 D 95% D 97% D 93% Bill Keating v Tyler MacAllister

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.