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New York election odds, 2026
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for New York's governor and House races. governor: Democrats 95% · House: 25 of 26 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 18.7. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
New York governor race
Democrats favoured (95%, average of the exchanges)
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New York House districts
25 of 26 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 18.7 of the priced seats; favoured in 19, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 6.
| District | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-01 | R 87% | D 14% | D 12% | Chris Gallant v Nick LaLota |
| NY-02 | R 81% | – | D 19% | Patrick Halpin v Andrew Garbarino |
| NY-03 | D 89% | D 89% | – | |
| NY-04 | D 92% | D 92% | – | |
| NY-05 | D 98% | – | D 98% | Gregory Meeks v George Marsh |
| NY-06 | D 99% | D 99% | D 99% | Grace Meng v Joseph Chou |
| NY-07 | D 100% | – | D 100% | Claire Valdez v Melvin Rivera |
| NY-08 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Hakeem Jeffries v Lewis Mizrahi |
| NY-09 | D 95% | – | D 95% | Yvette Clarke v Joel Anabilah-Azumah |
| NY-10 | D 99% | – | D 99% | Brad Lander v Jennifer Moore |
| NY-11 | R 94% | D 6% | D 7% | Michael DeCillis v Nicole Malliotakis |
| NY-12 | D 99% | – | D 99% | Micah Lasher v Caroline Shinkle |
| NY-13 | D 93% | – | D 93% | Darializa Avila Chevalier v Manual "Jomo" Williams |
| NY-14 | D 98% | D 97% | D 98% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez v Diamant Hysenaj |
| NY-15 | D 99% | – | D 99% | Ritchie Torres v Stylo Sapaskis |
| NY-16 | D 90% | – | D 90% | George Latimer v Joseph Cinquemani |
| NY-17 | D 61% | D 61% | – | |
| NY-19 | D 100% | D 100% | – | |
| NY-20 | D 96% | D 97% | D 95% | Paul Tonko v Ralph Ambrosio |
| NY-21 | R 72% | D 26% | D 31% | Blake Gendebien v Anthony Constantino |
| NY-22 | D 97% | D 97% | – | |
| NY-23 | R 97% | D 3% | D 3% | Aaron Gies v Nick Langworthy |
| NY-24 | R 97% | D 2% | D 4% | Alissa Ellman v Claudia Tenney |
| NY-25 | D 97% | D 98% | D 97% | Joseph Morelle v Virginia McIntyre |
| NY-26 | D 95% | D 96% | D 94% | Tim Kennedy v Dennis Hannon |
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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.