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Vermont election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Vermont's governor and House races. governor: Republicans 73% · House: 1 of 1 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 1.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Vermont governor race

Republicans favoured (73%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 26% +2
Republicans 75% −1

$9k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Phil Scott (R) 72% −5

$34k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%26%28%23 Sept22 Oct
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Vermont House districts

1 of 1 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 1.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 1, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 0.

Vermont House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
VT-AL D 98% D 99% D 97% Becca Balint v Gerald Malloy

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.