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Election odds › New Mexico

New Mexico election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for New Mexico's Senate, governor and House races. Senate: Democrats 98% · governor: Democrats 94% · House: 3 of 3 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 2.9. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

New Mexico Senate race

Democrats favoured (98%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Republicans 3% +1

$2k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

$53k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%98%21 Oct22 Oct
KalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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New Mexico governor race

Democrats favoured (94%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 95%
Republicans 6% +1

$9k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

$55k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%95%94%13 Oct22 Oct
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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New Mexico House districts

3 of 3 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 2.9 of the priced seats; favoured in 3, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 0.

New Mexico House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
NM-01 D 98% D 98% D 98% Melanie Stansbury v Didi Okpareke
NM-02 D 96% D 96% –
NM-03 D 97% D 98% D 95% Teresa Leger Fernández v Martin Zamora

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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.