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Montana election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Montana's Senate and House races. Senate: Republicans 91% · House: 2 of 2 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 0.5. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Montana Senate race

Republicans favoured (91%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats <1%
Republicans 92% −1

$5k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Kurt Alme (R) 91% +1

Also priced: Seth Bodnar 8%

$5k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%0%0%23 Sept22 Oct
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Montana House districts

2 of 2 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 0.5 of the priced seats; favoured in 0, toss-up in 1, Republicans favoured in 1.

Montana House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
MT-01 Toss-up, R 51% D 49% –
MT-02 R 97% D 2% D 5% Brian Miller v Troy Downing

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.