Election odds › Minnesota

Minnesota election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Minnesota's Senate, governor and House races. Senate: Democrats 87% · governor: Democrats 95% · House: 8 of 8 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 4.4. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Minnesota Senate race

Democrats favoured (87%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 87% −1

Republicans 14% +1

$15k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Peggy Flanagan (D) 87% −1

Michele Tafoya (R) 15% +3

$334k traded in 24 hours

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

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Minnesota governor race

Democrats favoured (95%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 95% −1

Republicans 5%

$4k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Amy Klobuchar (D) 96% +1

Lisa Demuth (R) 5%

$23k traded in 24 hours

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

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Minnesota House districts

8 of 8 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 4.4 of the priced seats; favoured in 4, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 4.

Minnesota House districts, 2026
District	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi	Candidates
MN-01	R 69%	D 33%	D 29%	Jake Johnson v Brad Finstad
MN-02	D 96%	D 96%	–
MN-03	D 95%	D 96%	D 95%	Kelly Morrison v Tyler Bass
MN-04	D 96%	D 97%	D 96%	Betty McCollum v Paul Wikstrom
MN-05	D 95%	D 94%	D 95%	Ilhan Omar v John Nagel
MN-06	R 97%	D 2%	D 4%	Doug Chapin v Tom Emmer
MN-07	R 95%	D 4%	D 6%	Erik Osberg v Michelle Fischbach
MN-08	R 84%	–	D 16%	Trina Swanson v Pete Stauber

Minnesota in the news

Michigan Football Seeks Rebound Against Minnesota in Week 5 Matchup 2 publishers
Questions Mount Over Michigan QB Bryce Underwood After Loss to Minnesota 3 publishers
Vikings Make History With Special Teams Outscoring Offense to Reach 4-0 1 publisher

All Minnesota stories →

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.