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Arkansas election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Arkansas's Senate, governor and House races. Senate: Republicans 95% · governor: Republicans 97% · House: 4 of 4 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 0.3. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Arkansas Senate race

Republicans favoured (95%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 5% −1
Republicans 95%

$3k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Hallie Shoffner (D) 5% +1
Tom Cotton (R) 95% −1

$20k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%5%5%23 Sept22 Oct
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Arkansas governor race

Republicans favoured (97%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

No market for this race.

Kalshi

Fred Love (D) 3%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) 97%

$2k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%3%21 Oct22 Oct
KalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Arkansas House districts

4 of 4 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 0.3 of the priced seats; favoured in 0, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 4.

Arkansas House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
AR-01 R 96% – D 4% Terri Yarbrough Green v Rick Crawford
AR-02 R 82% D 19% D 17% Chris Jones v French Hill
AR-03 R 97% D 5% D 2% Robb Ryerse v Steve Womack
AR-04 R 98% – D 2% James Russell v Bruce Westerman

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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.