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Nevada election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Nevada's governor and House races. governor: Democrats 66% · House: 4 of 4 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 3.2. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Nevada governor race

Democrats favoured (66%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 67% +6
Republicans 34% −6

$105k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Joe Lombardo (R) 34% −9

$76k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%67%66%26 Sept22 Oct
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Nevada House districts

4 of 4 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 3.2 of the priced seats; favoured in 3, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 1.

Nevada House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
NV-01 D 95% D 95% –
NV-02 R 63% D 38% D 37% Teresa Benitez-Thompson v David Flippo
NV-03 D 94% D 94% –
NV-04 D 96% D 96% –

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.