2026 election odds

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi say about each state's Senate, House and governor races, and about who controls Congress. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Senate control

67% 34%

Democrats: Polymarket 67% · Kalshi 67%
Republicans: Polymarket 34% · Kalshi 34%

House control

92% 8%

Democrats: Polymarket 93% · Kalshi 92%
Republicans: Polymarket 8% · Kalshi 9%

Biggest moves in 24 hours

NC-09 House Democratic chance 40% +20 pts
AZ-02 House Democratic chance 40% +13 pts
OH-15 House Democratic chance 41% +13 pts
MO-02 House Democratic chance 37% +11 pts
MI-07 House Democratic chance 74% +11 pts
MT-01 House Democratic chance 48% +9 pts
Texas Governor Democratic chance 35% +8 pts
FL-12 House Democratic chance 18% +8 pts

Mean change across the exchanges that report one. How the markets did →

Hover or tap a state to see both exchanges' odds.

Democrats favoured Republicans favoured No race or no market Darker means a bigger lead.

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Data: download the odds as JSON or CSV, free to use with a link back.

Senate races, most competitive first

Closest races

Iowa R 58%
Kansas R 62%
Maine D 65%
Texas D 67%
Michigan D 70%
Ohio D 72%
Nebraska R 72%
Alaska D 76%

Where the exchanges disagree

Polymarket and Kalshi are within 3 points on every shared race.

Senate races, 2026
State	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi
Iowa	Toss-up, Republicans lead (58%)	D 44% R 56%	D 41% R 59%Josh Turek v Ashley Hinson
Kansas	Republicans favoured (62%)	D 39% R 62%	D 39% R 62%Adam Hamilton v Roger Marshall
Maine	Democrats favoured (65%)	D 66% R 35%	D 64% R 36%Troy Jackson v Susan Collins
Texas	Democrats favoured (67%)	D 68% R 33%	D 67% R 33%James Talarico v Ken Paxton
Michigan	Democrats favoured (70%)	D 70% R 30%	D 70% R 32%Abdul El-Sayed v Mike Rogers
Ohio	Democrats favoured (72%)	D 72% R 28%	no market
Nebraska	Republicans favoured (72%)	D <1% R 71%	D <1% R 73%Cindy Burbank v Pete RickettsDan Osborn 27%
Alaska	Democrats favoured (76%)	no market	D 76% R 25%
South Carolina	Republicans favoured (82%)	D 20% R 81%	D 19% R 83%Annie Andrews v Darline Graham
Minnesota	Democrats favoured (87%)	D 87% R 14%	D 87% R 15%Peggy Flanagan v Michele Tafoya
Mississippi	Republicans favoured (89%)	D 12% R 89%	D 10% R 89%Scott Colom v Cindy Hyde-Smith
New Hampshire	Democrats favoured (90%)	D 91% R 10%	D 89% R 12%Chris Pappas v John E. Sununu
Florida	Republicans favoured (91%)	D 9% R 91%	no market
Montana	Republicans favoured (91%)	D <1% R 92%	D <1% R 91%Alani Bankhead v Kurt AlmeSeth Bodnar 8%
Idaho	Republicans favoured (92%)	D <1% R 92%	D 1% R 93%David Roth v Jim RischTodd Achilles 7%
South Dakota	Republicans favoured (93%)	D <1% R 93%	D <1% R 94%Julian Beaudion v Mike RoundsBrian Bengs 6%
Louisiana	Republicans favoured (94%)	D 8% R 93%	D 6% R 94%Jamie Davis v Julia Letlow
Arkansas	Republicans favoured (95%)	D 6% R 95%	D 5% R 95%Hallie Shoffner v Tom Cotton
Tennessee	Republicans favoured (95%)	D 4% R 94%	D 4% R 96%Marquita Bradshaw v Bill Hagerty
Georgia	Democrats favoured (96%)	D 96% R 4%	D 96% R 6%Jon Ossoff v Mike Collins
North Carolina	Democrats favoured (96%)	D 97% R 4%	D 96% R 4%Roy Cooper v Michael Whatley
Kentucky	Republicans favoured (97%)	R 97%	D 4% R 97%Charles Booker v Andy Barr
New Jersey	Democrats favoured (97%)	D 97% R 3%	D 97% R 4%Cory Booker v Justin Murphy
Oklahoma	Republicans favoured (97%)	R 97%	D 3% R 98%N’Kiyla Thomas v Kevin Hern
Virginia	Democrats favoured (98%)	no market	D 98% R 2%Mark Warner v Bert Mizusawa
New Mexico	Democrats favoured (98%)	R 4%	D 98% R 4%Ben Ray Luján v Larry E. Marker
Wyoming	Republicans favoured (98%)	R 97%	D 1% R 99%James Byrd v Harriet Hageman
West Virginia	Republicans favoured (98%)	no market	D 3% R 98%Rachel Fetty Anderson v Shelley Moore Capito
Massachusetts	Democrats favoured (98%)	no market	D 98% R 2%Ed Markey v John Deaton
Illinois	Democrats favoured (99%)	D 98%	D 99% R 2%Juliana Stratton v Don Tracy
Oregon	Democrats favoured (99%)	no market	D 99% R 2%Jeff Merkley v David Brock Smith
Rhode Island	Democrats favoured (99%)	R 2%	D 99% R 2%Jack Reed v Raymond McKay
Alabama	Republicans favoured (99%)	no market	D 2% R 99%Everett Wess v Barry Moore
Colorado	Democrats favoured (99%)	R 2%	D 99% R 1%John Hickenlooper v Mark Baisley
Delaware	Democrats favoured (100%)	R 1%	D 100% R 2%Chris Coons v Michael Katz

Governor races, most competitive first

Closest races

Georgia D 59%
Texas R 66%
Nevada D 66%
Vermont R 73%
Kansas R 74%
Ohio D 79%
Florida R 80%
Wisconsin D 80%

Where the exchanges disagree

Florida D: Polymarket 20% · Kalshi 23%
Oklahoma D: Polymarket 9% · Kalshi 12%

Governor races, 2026
State	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi
Georgia	Toss-up, Democrats lead (59%)	D 59% R 41%	D 59% R 43%Keisha Lance Bottoms v Rick Jackson
Texas	Republicans favoured (66%)	D 34% R 66%	D 36% R 65%Gina Hinojosa v Greg Abbott
Nevada	Democrats favoured (66%)	D 67% R 34%	D 66% R 34%Aaron Ford v Joe Lombardo
Vermont	Republicans favoured (73%)	D 26% R 75%	D 28% R 72%Amanda Janoo v Phil Scott
Kansas	Republicans favoured (74%)	D 26% R 74%	no market
Ohio	Democrats favoured (79%)	D 80% R 20%	D 79% R 21%Amy Acton v Vivek Ramaswamy
Florida	Republicans favoured (80%)	D 20% R 81%	D 23% R 79%David Jolly v Byron Donalds
Wisconsin	Democrats favoured (80%)	D 81% R 20%	D 80% R 20%David Crowley v Tom Tiffany
Oregon	Democrats favoured (83%)	D 84% R 16%	D 81% R 19%Tina Kotek v Christine Drazan
Iowa	Democrats favoured (87%)	D 89% R 12%	D 86% R 14%Rob Sand v Zach Lahn
Nebraska	Republicans favoured (90%)	D 10% R 90%	no market
Oklahoma	Republicans favoured (90%)	D 9% R 91%	D 12% R 90%Cyndi Munson v Mike Mazzei
Arizona	Democrats favoured (92%)	D 93% R 8%	D 91% R 10%Katie Hobbs v Andy Biggs
Michigan	Democrats favoured (92%)	D 92% R 7%	D 92% R 9%Jocelyn Benson v John JamesMike Duggan <1%
Tennessee	Republicans favoured (93%)	D 7%	D 6% R 93%Jerri Green v Marsha BlackburnDavid Hatley 2%
New Hampshire	Republicans favoured (93%)	D 5% R 93%	no market
South Carolina	Republicans favoured (93%)	D 7% R 94%	D 7% R 93%Jermaine Johnson v Alan Wilson
New Mexico	Democrats favoured (94%)	D 95% R 6%	D 94% R 7%Deb Haaland v Greggory D. Hull
Alabama	Republicans favoured (95%)	D 5% R 95%	D 6% R 94%Doug Jones v Tommy Tuberville
Rhode Island	Democrats favoured (95%)	no market	D 95% R 1%Helena Foulkes v Aaron GuckianKen Block 4%
Maine	Democrats favoured (95%)	D 95% R 5%	D 95% R 6%Hannah Pingree v Robert CharlesRick Bennett 2%
New York	Democrats favoured (95%)	D 96% R 5%	D 95% R 5%Kathy Hochul v Bruce Blakeman
Minnesota	Democrats favoured (95%)	D 95% R 5%	D 96% R 5%Amy Klobuchar v Lisa Demuth
Massachusetts	Democrats favoured (96%)	D 97% R 3%	D 96% R 4%Maura Healey v Mike Minogue
South Dakota	Republicans favoured (96%)	D 3% R 95%	D 2% R 98%Dan Ahlers v Larry Rhoden
Connecticut	Democrats favoured (97%)	no market	D 97% R 4%Ned Lamont v Ryan Fazio
Illinois	Democrats favoured (97%)	D 96% R 3%	D 97% R 4%JB Pritzker v Darren Bailey
Arkansas	Republicans favoured (97%)	no market	D 3% R 97%Fred Love v Sarah Huckabee Sanders
California	Democrats favoured (97%)	no market	D 97% R 4%Xavier Becerra v Steve Hilton
Colorado	Democrats favoured (97%)	no market	D 97% R 4%Phil Weiser v Victor Marx
Maryland	Democrats favoured (97%)	no market	D 97% R 3%Wes Moore v Dan Cox
Pennsylvania	Democrats favoured (97%)	D 97% R 3%	D 97% R 3%Josh Shapiro v Stacy Garrity
Idaho	Republicans favoured (98%)	R 97%	D 3% R 98%Terri Pickens v Brad Little
Wyoming	Republicans favoured (98%)	no market	D 2% R 98%Kenneth Casner v Eric Barlow
Hawaii	Democrats favoured (99%)	no market	D 99% R 3%Josh Green v Gary Cordery

House races by state

Each state is coloured by the share of its priced districts that Democrats are expected to win: the district odds added up. 418 of 435 districts are priced. Of the districts each exchange prices, Democrats are expected to win 155 of 310 on Polymarket and 173 of 350 on Kalshi. They price different sets of districts, so those two totals are not directly comparable. Faded states have fewer than half their seats priced. Open a state in the table to list its districts.

Closest districts

MT-01 R 52%
FL-22 D 55%
ME-02 R 56%
VA-01 D 58%
PA-01 R 59%
MI-04 D 59%
NC-09 R 59%
OH-15 R 59%
KY-06 R 60%
IA-02 D 60%
NY-17 D 61%
NV-02 R 63%

Where the exchanges disagree

OH-10 Democrats: Polymarket 18% · Kalshi 33%
GA-01 Democrats: Polymarket 5% · Kalshi 13%
MN-01 Democrats: Polymarket 36% · Kalshi 29%
NC-09 Democrats: Polymarket 37% · Kalshi 44%
CA-18 Democrats: Polymarket 97% · Kalshi 90%
OH-15 Democrats: Polymarket 38% · Kalshi 44%
GA-02 Democrats: Polymarket 93% · Kalshi 98%
FL-06 Democrats: Polymarket 1% · Kalshi 7%

House races by state, 2026
State	Priced	Expected Democratic seats	Polymarket	Kalshi	D · toss-up · R
Florida Florida page → 01 R 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 5% · Gay Valimont v Jimmy Patronis 02 R 92% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 8% · Amanda Green v Austin Rogers 03 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 7% · Seth Harp v Kat Cammack 04 R 80% Polymarket D 23% · Kalshi D 17% · LaShonda Holloway v Aaron Bean 05 R 94% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 6% · Rachel Grage v John Rutherford 06 R 96% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 7% · Eric Yonce v Randy Fine 07 R 74% Polymarket D 27% · Kalshi D 26% · Bale Dalton v Ryan Elijah 08 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 6% · Jennifer Jenkins v Mike Haridopolos 09 R 71% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 29% · Darren Soto v Dan Green 10 D 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 99% 11 R 85% Polymarket D 15% · Kalshi D 16% · James Pericola v Joe Strada 12 R 83% Polymarket D 16% · Kalshi D 19% · Kimberly Overman v Gus Bilirakis 13 R 74% Polymarket D 26% · Kalshi D – 14 D 64% Polymarket D 64% · Kalshi D 64% · Kathy Castor v Mike Beltran 15 R 93% Polymarket D 7% · Kalshi D 7% · Robert People v Laurel Lee 16 R 80% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 20% · Kelly Kirschner v Sydney Gruters 17 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% · Matthew Montavon v Greg Steube 18 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 6% · Curtis Gibson v Scott Franklin 19 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% · Victor Arias v Jim Schwartzel 20 D 98% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 97% · Debbie Wasserman Schultz v Brent Andersen 21 R 87% Polymarket D 12% · Kalshi D 14% · James Martin v Brian Mast 22 D 55% Polymarket D 54% · Kalshi D 57% · Pia Dandiya v Casey Askar 23 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 24 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Oliver Gilbert v Mayonna Te Brown 25 D 89% Polymarket D 90% · Kalshi D 88% · Jared Moskowitz v Scott Singer 26 R 84% Polymarket D 16% · Kalshi D 17% · Nicole Locklin v Mario Díaz-Balart 27 R 66% Polymarket D 35% · Kalshi D 33% · Eliott Rodriguez v Maria Elvira Salazar 28 R 94% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 6% · Phil Ehr v Carlos Giménez	28 of 28	8.8	6.1 of 21	7.6 of 26	6 · 1 · 21
Kentucky Kentucky page → 01 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 5% · Drew Williams v James Comer 02 R 97% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 3% · Megan Wingfield v Brett Guthrie 03 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 97% · Morgan McGarvey v Maria Rodriguez 04 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 4% · Melissa Claire Strange v Ed Gallrein 05 R 97% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 4% · Ned Pillersdorf v Hal Rogers 06 R 60% Polymarket D 41% · Kalshi D 40% · Zach Dembo v Ralph Alvarado	6 of 6	1.5	1.5 of 6	1.5 of 6	1 · 1 · 4
Maine Maine page → 01 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 97% · Chellie Pingree v Ronald Russell 02 R 56% Polymarket D 44% · Kalshi D –	2 of 2	1.4	1.4 of 2	1.0 of 1	1 · 1 · 0
Michigan Michigan page → 01 R 89% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 11% · Callie Barr v Jack Bergman 02 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Benjamin Ambrose v John Moolenaar 03 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 04 D 59% Polymarket D 59% · Kalshi D – 05 R 94% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 8% · Christian Vukasovich v Tim Walberg 06 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 95% · Debbie Dingell v Heather Smiley 07 D 74% Polymarket D 74% · Kalshi D – 08 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 09 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% · Ray Pooley v Lisa McClain 11 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 96% · Jeremy Moss v Ethan Baker 12 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Rashida Tlaib v James Hooper 13 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Donavan McKinney v T.P. Nykoriak	12 of 13	7.4	5.3 of 8	4.1 of 8	7 · 1 · 4
Montana Montana page → 01 R 52% Polymarket D 48% · Kalshi D – 02 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 5% · Brian Miller v Troy Downing	2 of 2	0.5	0.5 of 2	0.0 of 1	0 · 1 · 1
North Carolina North Carolina page → 01 D 72% Polymarket D 72% · Kalshi D – 02 D 98% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 97% · Deborah Ross v Gene Douglass 03 R 82% Polymarket D 18% · Kalshi D 19% · Raymond Smith Jr. v Greg Murphy 04 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 95% · Valerie Foushee v Max Ganorkar 05 R 87% Polymarket D 14% · Kalshi D 13% · Chuck Hubbard v Virginia Foxx 06 R 90% Polymarket D 10% · Kalshi D 11% · Cyril Jefferson v Addison McDowell 07 R 80% Polymarket D 22% · Kalshi D 19% · Kim Hardy v David Rouzer 08 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 6% · Colby Watson v Mark Harris 09 R 59% Polymarket D 37% · Kalshi D 44% · Richard Ojeda v Richard Hudson 10 R 94% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 7% · Ashley Bell v Pat Harrigan 11 D 89% Polymarket D 89% · Kalshi D – 12 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 96% · Alma Adams v Jack Codiga 13 R 85% Polymarket D 15% · Kalshi D 15% · Paul Barringer v Brad Knott 14 R 88% Polymarket D 14% · Kalshi D 10% · LaKesha Womack v Tim Moore	14 of 14	5.9	5.9 of 14	4.3 of 12	5 · 1 · 8
Ohio Ohio page → 01 D 95% Polymarket D 95% · Kalshi D – 02 R 98% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 3% · Jennifer Mazzuckelli v David Taylor 03 D 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 95% · Joyce Beatty v Cleophus Dulaney 04 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 4% · Joshua Kolasinski v Jim Jordan 05 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% · Brian Shaver v Bob Latta 06 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 4% · Elizabeth Kirtley v Michael Rulli 07 D 90% Polymarket D 90% · Kalshi D 89% · Brian Poindexter v Max Miller 08 R 94% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 6% · Vanessa Enoch v Warren Davidson 09 D 74% Polymarket D 74% · Kalshi D – 10 R 74% Polymarket D 18% · Kalshi D 33% · Kristina Knickerbocker v Mike Turner 11 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Shontel Brown v Mike Kirchner 12 R 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 4% · Jerrad Christian v Troy Balderson 13 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D – 14 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 3% · Maria Jukic v David Joyce 15 R 59% Polymarket D 38% · Kalshi D 44% · Don Leonard v Mike Carey	15 of 15	6.5	4.4 of 12	3.9 of 12	6 · 1 · 8
Pennsylvania Pennsylvania page → 01 R 59% Polymarket D 41% · Kalshi D – 02 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 96% · Brendan Boyle v Jessica Arriaga 03 D 100% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 100% 04 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 95% · Madeleine Dean v Aurora Stuski 05 D 100% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 100% · Mary Gay Scanlon v Nicholas Manganaro 06 D 97% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 96% · Chrissy Houlahan v Marty Young 08 D 71% Polymarket D 71% · Kalshi D – 09 R 94% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 6% · Rachel Wallace v Dan Meuser 10 D 81% Polymarket D 81% · Kalshi D – 11 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 4% · Nancy Mannion v Lloyd Smucker 12 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 98% · Summer Lee v James Hayes 13 R 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 5% · Beth Farnham v John Joyce 14 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 6% · Alan Bradstock v Guy Reschenthaler 15 R 94% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 7% · Ray Bilger v Glenn Thompson 16 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 7% · Justin Wagner v Mike Kelly 17 D 95% Polymarket D 95% · Kalshi D –	16 of 17	9.0	6.9 of 12	6.2 of 12	9 · 1 · 6
Virginia Virginia page → 01 D 58% Polymarket D 58% · Kalshi D – 02 D 89% Polymarket D 89% · Kalshi D – 03 D 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 95% · Bobby Scott v Edwin Rivera 04 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Jennifer McClellan v Robert Murray 05 R 66% Polymarket D 34% · Kalshi D 34% · Tom Perriello v John McGuire 06 R 92% Polymarket D 7% · Kalshi D 8% · Beth Macy v Ben Cline 07 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 08 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Don Beyer v Tony Sabio 09 R 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 4% · Joy Powers v Morgan Griffith 11 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · James Walkinshaw v Arthur Purves	10 of 11	6.7	2.8 of 5	4.3 of 7	6 · 1 · 3
Alabama Alabama page → 01 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Clyde Jones v Jerry Carl 02 R 72% Polymarket D 27% · Kalshi D 28% · Shomari Figures v Rhett Marques 03 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Lee McInnis v Mike Rogers 04 R 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 1% · Amanda Pusczek v Robert Aderholt 05 R 96% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 5% · Andrew Sneed v Dale Strong 06 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 3% · Maurice Mercer v Gary Palmer 07 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 99% · Terri Sewell v Ammie Akin	7 of 7	1.4	1.3 of 4	1.4 of 7	1 · 0 · 6
Alaska Alaska page → AL R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D –	1 of 1	0.1	0.1 of 1	–	0 · 0 · 1
Arizona Arizona page → 01 D 85% Polymarket D 85% · Kalshi D – 02 R 65% Polymarket D 35% · Kalshi D – 03 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% 04 D 94% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 93% · Greg Stanton v Zuhdi Jasser 05 R 88% Polymarket D 12% · Kalshi D 13% · Elizabeth Lee v Mark Lamb 06 D 90% Polymarket D 90% · Kalshi D – 07 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 99% · Adelita Grijalva v Daniel Francis Butierez Sr. 08 R 88% Polymarket D 12% · Kalshi D 12% · Bernadette Greene-Placentia v Abe Hamadeh 09 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 5% · Dani Sterbinsky v Paul Gosar	9 of 9	5.3	4.3 of 8	3.2 of 6	5 · 0 · 4
Arkansas Arkansas page → 01 R 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 4% · Terri Yarbrough Green v Rick Crawford 02 R 81% Polymarket D 20% · Kalshi D 17% · Chris Jones v French Hill 03 R 97% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 2% · Robb Ryerse v Steve Womack 04 R 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 2% · James Russell v Bruce Westerman	4 of 4	0.3	0.2 of 2	0.3 of 4	0 · 0 · 4
California California page → 01 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 95% · Mike McGuire v James Gallagher 02 D 98% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 99% · Jared Huffman v Robin Littau 04 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D – 05 R 93% Polymarket D 7% · Kalshi D 7% · Michael Masuda v Tom McClintock 06 D 98% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 100% 08 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 98% · John Garamendi v Rudy Recile 09 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 10 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Mark DeSaulnier v Jeff Frese 13 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D – 14 D 100% Polymarket D 100% · Kalshi D – 15 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Kevin Mullin v Charles Hoelter 16 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Sam Liccardo v Peter Sundin Soulé 17 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Ro Khanna v Ritesh Tandon 18 D 94% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 90% · Zoe Lofgren v Shane Lewis 19 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Jimmy Panetta v Peter Verbica 20 R 97% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 3% · Sandra Van Scotter v Vince Fong 21 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 22 D 90% Polymarket D 90% · Kalshi D – 23 R 98% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 2% · Tessa Lynn Hodge v Jay Obernolte 24 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Salud Carbajal v Bob Smith 25 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 96% · Raul Ruiz v Joe Males 26 D 94% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 92% · Jacqui Irwin v Sam Gallucci 28 D 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 95% · Judy Chu v April Verlato 30 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 98% · Laura Friedman v Scott Meyers 31 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Gil Cisneros v Eric Ching 32 D 97% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 95% · Brad Sherman v Larry Thompson 33 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 98% · Pete Aguilar v Stephanie Vargas 35 D 99% Polymarket D 100% · Kalshi D 98% · Norma Torres v Mike Cargile 36 D 98% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 98% · Ted Lieu v Houston Brignano 38 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Hilda Solis v Pedro Antonio Casas 39 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 97% · Mark Takano v Steve Manos 41 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 42 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 96% · Robert Garcia v Brian Burley 43 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Maxine Waters v Cristian Morales 44 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Nanette Barragán v Genevieve Angel 45 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 46 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 98% · Lou Correa v David Pan 47 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 48 D 93% Polymarket D 94% · Kalshi D 92% · Marni von Wilpert v Jim Desmond 49 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 50 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 97% · Scott Peters v Stephen Cohen 51 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Sara Jacobs v Ricardo Cabrera 52 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 95% · Juan Vargas v Jeff Belle	43 of 52	38.8	27.2 of 31	29.1 of 33	40 · 0 · 3
Colorado Colorado page → 01 D 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 99% · Melat Kiros v Christy Peterson 02 D 98% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 99% · Joe Neguse v Kelley Dennison 03 R 70% Polymarket D 30% · Kalshi D – 04 R 73% Polymarket D 28% · Kalshi D 26% · Eileen Laubacher v Lauren Boebert 05 R 73% Polymarket D 28% · Kalshi D 26% · Jessica Killin v Jeff Crank 06 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 98% · Jason Crow v Jason Clark 07 D 94% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 94% · Brittany Pettersen v Tim Bennett 08 D 87% Polymarket D 87% · Kalshi D –	8 of 8	5.6	3.7 of 6	4.4 of 6	5 · 0 · 3
Connecticut Connecticut page → 01 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Luke Bronin v Amy Chai 02 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 99% · Joe Courtney v George Austin 03 D 95% Polymarket D 95% · Kalshi D 96% · Rosa DeLauro v Christopher Lancia 04 D 94% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 94% · Jim Himes v Michael Goldstein 05 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D –	5 of 5	4.8	2.9 of 3	3.9 of 4	5 · 0 · 0
Delaware Delaware page → AL D 98% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 98% · Sarah McBride v Joseph Arminio	1 of 1	1.0	1.0 of 1	1.0 of 1	1 · 0 · 0
Georgia Georgia page → 01 R 91% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 13% · Amanda Hollowell v Jim Kingston 02 D 95% Polymarket D 93% · Kalshi D 98% · Sanford Bishop v Matt Day 03 R 95% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 5% · Maura Keller v Brian Jack 04 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Hank Johnson v James Duffie 05 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Nikema Williams v John Salvesen 06 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Lucy McBath v Kevin Martin 07 R 92% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 10% · Anthony Kozycki v Rich McCormick 08 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 2% · Kelly Esti v Austin Scott 09 R 96% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 4% · Caitlyn Gegen v Andrew Clyde 10 R 98% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 3% · Pamela DeLancy v Houston Gaines 11 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 5% · Chris Harden v John Cowan 12 R 89% Polymarket D 9% · Kalshi D 14% · Ceretta Smith v Rick Allen 13 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Jasmine Clark v Jonathan Chavez 14 R 94% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 5% · Shawn Harris v Clay Fuller	14 of 14	5.4	1.4 of 10	5.5 of 14	5 · 0 · 9
Hawaii Hawaii page → 01 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 98% · Ed Case v Adriel Lam 02 D 94% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 92% · Jill Tokuda v Brenton Awa	2 of 2	1.9	1.9 of 2	1.9 of 2	2 · 0 · 0
Idaho Idaho page → 01 R 94% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 6% · Kaylee Peterson v Russ Fulcher 02 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 5% · Elinor Gilbreath v Mike Simpson	2 of 2	0.1	0.0 of 1	0.1 of 2	0 · 0 · 2
Illinois Illinois page → 01 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 95% · Jonathan Jackson v Christian Maxwell 02 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 96% · Donna Miller v Michael Noack 03 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Delia Ramirez v Angel Oakley 04 D 98% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 97% · Patty Garcia v Lupe Castillo 05 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 94% · Mike Quigley v Tommy Hanson 06 D 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 95% · Sean Casten v Niki Conforti 07 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · La Shawn Ford v Chad Koppie 08 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Melissa Bean v Jennifer Davis 09 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Daniel Biss v John Elleson 10 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Brad Schneider v Carl Lambrecht 11 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 96% · Bill Foster v Jeff Walter 12 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Julie Fortier v Mike Bost 13 D 94% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 93% · Nikki Budzinski v Jeff Wilson 14 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 96% · Lauren Underwood v James Marter 15 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 6% · Jennifer Todd v Mary Miller 16 R 98% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 4% · Paul Nolley v Darin LaHood 17 D 98% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D –	17 of 17	13.6	7.8 of 10	12.6 of 16	14 · 0 · 3
Indiana Indiana page → 01 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D – 02 R 97% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 3% · Jamee Decio v Rudy Yakym 03 R 97% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 2% · Kelly Thompson v Marlin Stutzman 04 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 6% · Drew Cox v Jim Baird 05 R 87% Polymarket D 14% · Kalshi D 13% · J.D. Ford v Victoria Spartz 06 R 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 1% · Cynthia Wirth v Jefferson Shreve 08 R 93% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 7% · Mary Allen v Mark Messmer 09 R 96% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 2% · Brad Meyer v Erin Houchin	8 of 9	1.4	1.3 of 6	0.3 of 7	1 · 0 · 7
Iowa Iowa page → 01 D 83% Polymarket D 83% · Kalshi D – 02 D 60% Polymarket D 60% · Kalshi D 61% · Lindsay James v Joe Mitchell 04 R 97% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 5% · Dave Dawson v Chris McGowan	3 of 4	1.5	1.4 of 3	0.7 of 2	2 · 0 · 1
Kansas Kansas page → 01 R 96% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 6% · Lauren Reinhold v Tracey Mann 02 R 82% Polymarket D 20% · Kalshi D 16% · Don Coover v Derek Schmidt 03 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 95% · Sharice Davids v Eric Jenkins 04 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 5% · Katy Tyndell v Ron Estes	4 of 4	1.2	1.2 of 4	1.2 of 4	1 · 0 · 3
Louisiana Louisiana page → 01 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% 02 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% 03 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 3% 04 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% 05 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% 06 R 93% Polymarket D 7% · Kalshi D 6%	6 of 6	1.2	0.2 of 3	1.2 of 6	1 · 0 · 5
Maryland Maryland page → 01 R 84% Polymarket D 15% · Kalshi D 17% · Dan Schwartz v Andy Harris 02 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Johnny Olszewski v Dave Wallace 03 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 97% · Sarah Elfreth v Berney Flowers 04 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Glenn Ivey v George McDermott 05 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 96% · Adrian Boafo v Chris Chaffee 06 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 95% · April McClain Delaney v Robin Ficker 07 D 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 95% · Kweisi Mfume v Scott Collier 08 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Jamie Raskin v Cheryl Riley	8 of 8	6.9	3.1 of 4	6.9 of 8	7 · 0 · 1
Massachusetts Massachusetts page → 01 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 94% 02 D 97% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 98% 03 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Lori Trahan v Gary Grossi 04 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Jake Auchincloss v Tom Stalcup 05 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% 06 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Dan Koh v Micah Jones 07 D 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 99% 08 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Stephen Lynch v Robert Burke 09 D 95% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 93% · Bill Keating v Tyler MacAllister	9 of 9	8.7	2.9 of 3	8.7 of 9	9 · 0 · 0
Minnesota Minnesota page → 01 R 68% Polymarket D 36% · Kalshi D 29% · Jake Johnson v Brad Finstad 02 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 03 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 95% · Kelly Morrison v Tyler Bass 04 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 96% · Betty McCollum v Paul Wikstrom 05 D 95% Polymarket D 94% · Kalshi D 95% · Ilhan Omar v John Nagel 06 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 4% · Doug Chapin v Tom Emmer 07 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 6% · Erik Osberg v Michelle Fischbach 08 R 84% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 16% · Trina Swanson v Pete Stauber	8 of 8	4.4	4.2 of 7	3.4 of 7	4 · 0 · 4
Mississippi Mississippi page → 01 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Cliff Johnson v Trent Kelly 02 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 97% · Bennie Thompson v Ron Eller 03 R 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 2% · Michael Chiaradio v Michael Guest 04 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Jeffrey Hulum III v Mike Ezell	4 of 4	1.0	1.0 of 1	1.0 of 4	1 · 0 · 3
Missouri Missouri page → 01 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Wesley Bell v Paul Berry 02 R 63% Polymarket D 36% · Kalshi D 37% · Fred Wellman v Ann Wagner 03 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 4% · Bethany Mann v Bob Onder 04 R 96% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 4% · Jordan Herrera v Mark Alford 05 D 89% Polymarket D 89% · Kalshi D – 06 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% · Josh Smead v Chris Stigall 07 R 98% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 2% · Missi Hesketh v Eric Burlison 08 R 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 5% · Chris Reichard v Jason Smith	8 of 8	2.4	1.4 of 6	1.5 of 7	2 · 0 · 6
Nebraska Nebraska page → 01 R 80% Polymarket D 20% · Kalshi D 21% · Chris Backemeyer v Mike Flood 02 D 95% Polymarket D 95% · Kalshi D – 03 R 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 2% · Becky Stille v Adrian Smith	3 of 3	1.2	1.2 of 2	0.2 of 2	1 · 0 · 2
Nevada Nevada page → 01 D 95% Polymarket D 95% · Kalshi D – 02 R 63% Polymarket D 38% · Kalshi D 37% · Teresa Benitez-Thompson v David Flippo 03 D 94% Polymarket D 94% · Kalshi D – 04 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D –	4 of 4	3.2	3.2 of 4	0.4 of 1	3 · 0 · 1
New Hampshire New Hampshire page → 01 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 02 D 96% Polymarket D 95% · Kalshi D 97% · Maggie Goodlander v Lily Tang Williams	2 of 2	1.9	1.9 of 2	1.0 of 1	2 · 0 · 0
New Jersey New Jersey page → 01 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 96% · Donald Norcross v Damon Galdo 02 R 77% Polymarket D 24% · Kalshi D 22% · Zack Mullock v Jeff Van Drew 03 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 97% · Herb Conaway v Michael McGuire 04 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Rachel Peace v Chris Smith 05 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 06 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 98% · Frank Pallone v Hillary Herzig 07 D 93% Polymarket D 93% · Kalshi D – 08 D 98% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 100% 09 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 10 D 98% Polymarket D 100% · Kalshi D 97% · LaMonica McIver v Carmen Bucco 11 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 96% · Analilia Mejia v Joe Hathaway 12 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 98% · Adam Hamawy v Gregg Mele	12 of 12	9.9	9.9 of 11	7.1 of 9	10 · 0 · 2
New Mexico New Mexico page → 01 D 98% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 98% · Melanie Stansbury v Didi Okpareke 02 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 03 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 95% · Teresa Leger Fernández v Martin Zamora	3 of 3	2.9	2.9 of 3	1.9 of 2	3 · 0 · 0
New York New York page → 01 R 87% Polymarket D 14% · Kalshi D 12% · Chris Gallant v Nick LaLota 02 R 81% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 19% · Patrick Halpin v Andrew Garbarino 03 D 89% Polymarket D 89% · Kalshi D – 04 D 92% Polymarket D 92% · Kalshi D – 05 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Gregory Meeks v George Marsh 06 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 99% · Grace Meng v Joseph Chou 07 D 100% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 100% · Claire Valdez v Melvin Rivera 08 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Hakeem Jeffries v Lewis Mizrahi 09 D 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 95% · Yvette Clarke v Joel Anabilah-Azumah 10 D 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 99% · Brad Lander v Jennifer Moore 11 R 94% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 7% · Michael DeCillis v Nicole Malliotakis 12 D 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 99% · Micah Lasher v Caroline Shinkle 13 D 93% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 93% · Darializa Avila Chevalier v Manual "Jomo" Williams 14 D 98% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 98% · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez v Diamant Hysenaj 15 D 99% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 99% · Ritchie Torres v Stylo Sapaskis 16 D 90% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 90% · George Latimer v Joseph Cinquemani 17 D 61% Polymarket D 61% · Kalshi D – 19 D 100% Polymarket D 100% · Kalshi D – 20 D 96% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 95% · Paul Tonko v Ralph Ambrosio 21 R 72% Polymarket D 26% · Kalshi D 31% · Blake Gendebien v Anthony Constantino 22 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 23 R 97% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 3% · Aaron Gies v Nick Langworthy 24 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 4% · Alissa Ellman v Claudia Tenney 25 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 97% · Joseph Morelle v Virginia McIntyre 26 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 94% · Tim Kennedy v Dennis Hannon	25 of 26	18.7	9.7 of 15	14.3 of 20	19 · 0 · 6
North Dakota North Dakota page → AL R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Trygve Hammer v Julie Fedorchak	1 of 1	0.0	–	0.0 of 1	0 · 0 · 1
Oklahoma Oklahoma page → 01 R 98% Polymarket D <1% · Kalshi D 3% · John Croisant v Mark Tedford 02 R 96% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 5% · Brandon Wade v Josh Brecheen 03 R 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 2% · Suzie Byrd v Frank Lucas 04 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 5% · Mitchell Jacob v Tom Cole 05 R 86% Polymarket D 13% · Kalshi D 16% · Jena Nelson v Stephanie Bice	5 of 5	0.3	0.2 of 4	0.3 of 5	0 · 0 · 5
Oregon Oregon page → 01 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Suzanne Bonamici v Barbara Kahl 02 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 4% · Chris Beck v Cliff Bentz 03 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Maxine Dexter v Loran Ayles 04 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 94% · Val Hoyle v Monique DeSpain 05 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D – 06 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Andrea Salinas v David Russ	6 of 6	4.9	2.0 of 3	3.9 of 5	5 · 0 · 1
Rhode Island Rhode Island page → 01 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 97% · Gabe Amo v Kellie Keenan 02 D 95% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D 94% · Seth Magaziner v Victor Mellor	2 of 2	1.9	1.9 of 2	1.9 of 2	2 · 0 · 0
South Carolina South Carolina page → 01 R 66% Polymarket D 35% · Kalshi D 33% · Nancy S. Lacore v Jenny Costa Honeycutt 02 R 85% Polymarket D 14% · Kalshi D 16% · Zyon Khalifa v Joe Wilson 03 R 97% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 3% · Eunice Lehmacher v Sheri Biggs 04 R 94% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 7% · Courtney McClain v William Timmons 05 R 92% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 8% · Mallory Dittmer v Wes Climer 06 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 97% · Jim Clyburn v John Peterson 07 R 94% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 7% · John Vincent v Russell Fry	7 of 7	1.7	1.6 of 6	1.7 of 7	1 · 0 · 6
South Dakota South Dakota page → AL R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 3% · Nicole Gronli v Marty Jackley	1 of 1	0.0	0.0 of 1	0.0 of 1	0 · 0 · 1
Tennessee Tennessee page → 01 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Kristi Burke v Diana Harshbarger 02 R 94% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 6% · Michaela Barnett v Tim Burchett 03 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 2% · Anna Golladay v Chuck Fleischmann 04 R 99% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 1% · Victoria Broderick v Scott DesJarlais 05 R 93% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 8% · Chaz Molder v Charlie Hatcher 06 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% · Mike Croley v Johnny Garrett 07 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 4% · Darden Copeland v Matt Van Epps 08 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 3% · Heidi Kuhn v David Kustoff 09 R 85% Polymarket D 14% · Kalshi D 16% · Justin J. Pearson v Brent Taylor	9 of 9	0.5	0.4 of 7	0.5 of 9	0 · 0 · 9
Texas Texas page → 01 R 97% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 4% · Yolanda R. Prince v Nathaniel Moran 02 R 94% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 6% · Shaun Finnie v Steve Toth 03 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 4% · Evan Hunt v Keith Self 04 R 99% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 1% · Jason Pearce v Pat Fallon 05 R 98% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 2% · Chelsey Hockett v Lance Gooden 06 R 99% Polymarket D <1% · Kalshi D 2% · Danny Minton v Jake Ellzey 07 D 97% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 96% · Lizzie Fletcher v Alexander Hale 08 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 4% · Laura Jones v Jessica Steinmann 09 R 81% Polymarket D 19% · Kalshi D – 10 R 91% Polymarket D 8% · Kalshi D 9% · Caitlin Rourk v Chris Gober 11 R 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 4% · Claire Reynolds v August Pfluger 12 R 95% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 5% · Angela Rodriguez Prilliman v Craig Goldman 13 R 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 3% · Mark Nair v Ronny Jackson 14 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 4% · Thurman Bartie v Randy Weber 15 D 86% Polymarket D 86% · Kalshi D – 16 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 97% · Veronica Escobar v Adam Bauman 17 R 95% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 4% · Casey Shepard v Pete Sessions 18 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Christian Menefee v Ronald Whitfield 19 R 98% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D 3% · Kyle Rable v Tom Sell 20 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 97% · Joaquin Castro v Edgardo Baez 21 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 3% · Kristin Hook v Mark Teixeira 22 R 94% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 6% · Marquette Greene-Scott v Trever Nehls 23 R 67% Polymarket D 33% · Kalshi D 33% · Katy Padilla Stout v Brandon Herrera 24 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 5% · Kevin Burge v Beth Van Duyne 25 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 3% · Dione Sims v Roger Williams 26 R 97% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D 4% · Steven Shook v Brandon Gill 27 R 94% Polymarket D 6% · Kalshi D 6% · Tanya Lloyd v Michael Cloud 28 D 75% Polymarket D 75% · Kalshi D – 29 D 98% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 97% · Sylvia Garcia v Martha Fierro 30 D 97% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 97% · Frederick Haynes III v Everett Jackson 31 R 94% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 7% · Justin Early v John Carter 32 R 91% Polymarket D 9% · Kalshi D – 33 D 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 96% · Colin Allred v Patrick David Gillespie 35 D 64% Polymarket D 64% · Kalshi D – 36 R 95% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 4% · Rhonda Hart v Brian Babin 37 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 97% · Greg Casar v Lauren B. Peña 38 R 96% Polymarket D 3% · Kalshi D 6% · Melissa McDonough v Jon Bonck	37 of 38	11.6	8.6 of 32	9.1 of 32	11 · 0 · 26
Utah Utah page → 01 D 96% Polymarket D 96% · Kalshi D – 02 R 99% Polymarket D 1% · Kalshi D – 03 R 93% Polymarket D 7% · Kalshi D – 04 R 96% Polymarket D 5% · Kalshi D 4% · Jonny Larsen v Mike Kennedy	4 of 4	1.1	1.1 of 4	0.0 of 1	1 · 0 · 3
Vermont Vermont page → AL D 98% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 97% · Becca Balint v Gerald Malloy	1 of 1	1.0	1.0 of 1	1.0 of 1	1 · 0 · 0
Washington Washington page → 01 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Suzan DelBene v Mary Silva 02 D 97% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D 96% · Rick Larsen v Edwin H. Feller 03 D 92% Polymarket D 92% · Kalshi D – 04 R 93% Polymarket D 7% · Kalshi D 7% · John Duresky v Amanda McKinney 05 R 86% Polymarket D 13% · Kalshi D 15% · Carmela Conroy v Michael Baumgartner 06 D 97% Polymarket D 98% · Kalshi D 96% · Emily Randall v Teresa Fox 07 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% · Pramila Jayapal v Nirav Sheth 08 D 99% Polymarket D 99% · Kalshi D – 09 D 97% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 98% · Adam Smith v Doug Basler 10 D 95% Polymarket D 97% · Kalshi D 94% · Marilyn Strickland v Chris D. Chung	10 of 10	8.0	6.0 of 8	6.0 of 8	8 · 0 · 2
West Virginia West Virginia page → 01 R 96% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 4% · Vince George v Carol Miller 02 R 96% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 5% · Ace Parsi v Riley Moore	2 of 2	0.1	0.0 of 1	0.1 of 2	0 · 0 · 2
Wisconsin Wisconsin page → 01 R 65% Polymarket D 36% · Kalshi D – 02 D 98% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 98% 04 D 95% Polymarket D – · Kalshi D 95% · Gwen Moore v Tim Rogers 05 R 99% Polymarket D 2% · Kalshi D <1% · Andrew Beck v Scott Fitzgerald 06 R 93% Polymarket D 7% · Kalshi D 8% · Brad Smith v Glenn Grothman 07 R 95% Polymarket D 4% · Kalshi D 6% · Fred Clark v Michael Alfonso 08 R 89% Polymarket D 10% · Kalshi D 12% · Rick Crosson v Tony Wied	7 of 8	2.5	0.6 of 5	2.2 of 6	2 · 0 · 5
Wyoming Wyoming page → AL R 97% Polymarket D <1% · Kalshi D 6% · Lisa Kinney v Chuck Gray	1 of 1	0.0	0.0 of 1	0.1 of 1	0 · 0 · 1

"Average" is the plain mean of the exchanges that price a party; where only one does, that exchange's price is used. Each party's price comes from its own market, so a race's two sides need not add to exactly 100%, and independents are listed beside the table row rather than on the map. On the House view, a district's two sides are scaled to add to 100% before the seats are added up, a district is a toss-up when neither party is above 60%, and the totals treat districts as independent, so they are a tally of prices and not a forecast of the chamber. Some state markets trade very little, so a price can sit still for hours. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Updated Thu, 22 Oct 2026 11:15:38 GMT.